The college football season continues to be a roller-coaster ride here in the Tuley’s Takes home office. Last week in this weekly CFB column, I wrote that I was trying to hit midseason form but instead went 1-3 ATS with losses on Iowa State +1 in a 38-30 loss at Cincinnati, North Carolina +14 in a 38-10 loss vs. Clemson and California +3 in a 45-21 loss vs. Duke. The lone win was on Kansas State +5.5 in a 35-34 loss at Baylor. That dropped our overall record to 11-13 ATS.

It’s been a tough year for an awful lot of CFB handicappers as the Top 7 Most-Selected Teams in the SuperContest College contest at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas have gone 15-26-1 ATS (36.6%). It was even worse before having their first winning week of the season at 4-3 ATS. Well, this is Week 7 of the CFB season and that 14-week contest, so hopefully this is where we finally hit midseason form.

Let’s get started with four (hopefully) live underdogs—plus a total—on Saturday to close out the first half and head into the second half on a winning note.

Navy (Over 52.5) at Temple (+10)

Saturday, 4 p.m. ET/1 p.m. PT

Navy comes in undefeated at 5-0, but the Midshipmen haven’t exactly faced a Murderer’s Row with Rice, Tulsa, UAB, VMI and Air Force. Temple is 3-2 and a little more battle-tested, so I think the Owls can keep up with Navy even though I’m not sure they can slow down the Middies’ ground game. But that leads us to also looking at the Over, which feels low as Temple is averaging 30 points a game and allowing 25, while Navy is averaging 41 points and allowing 19.6 (though again against weaker competition). Give me the Over and the points in a shootout.

College Football Best Bet: Temple +10 and Navy-Temple Over 52.5

Arkansas (+10.5) at #12 Tennessee

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Saturday, 4:15 p.m. ET/1:15 p.m. PT

After that first game, we definitely have an SEC theme this week—namely, SEC underdogs. Arkansas is only 2-3 and now has interim coach Bobby Petrino continuing his redemption tour after his scandal 13 years ago, when he was fired as Arkansas’ head coach (Google it if you’re too young to remember). Make fun of Petrino for the bad decisions he’s made (he also infamously resigned before even finishing his first season with the NFL’s Atlanta Falcons in 2007 to take the Arkansas job the first time), the man can coach and I expect the Razorbacks to look more like the team that lost just 41-35 at Mississippi than the one that was blown out 56-13 by Notre Dame. I definitely think this line should be closer to a touchdown. Besides, Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as double-digit conference favorites, as the Vols just don’t win by margin in these kinds of spots. 

College Football Best Bet: Arkansas +10.5

Florida (+7.5) at #5 Texas A&M

Saturday, 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT

Florida coach Billy Napier continues to be on the hot seat at 2-3 (1-1 in the SEC), but his players did respond with a 29-21 upset of No. 9 Texas last week that was the Gators’ most complete game of the season. They get another chance here against undefeated Texas A&M, which comes in ranked No. 5. They cracked the Top 10 after their 41-40 win at Notre Dame, but haven’t really been tested since. Everyone is knocking Florida/Napier, but they lost to an underrated South Florida team plus had to face LSU and Miami-Fla., so they’re better than their record and won‘t be intimidated by the 12th Man in College Station.

College Football Best Bet: Florida +7.5

#10 Georgia at Auburn (+4)

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT

Both teams are underachieving this season with Auburn at 3-2 (0-2 in the SEC) and Georgia at 4-1 with the loss coming vs. Alabama, but 1-4 ATS. I know those kinds of trends tend to reverse, especially as oddsmakers adjust a team’s spreads – and this is a case with the line being kinda short. However, I’m going to take the home dog as it’s always tough to win on the road in the SEC, as home dogs are 5-1 ATS this season. I’m relying on the Auburn defense to keep this close and a typical SEC slobberknocker with it coming down to a field goal. Auburn has been struggling on offense, but at least QB Jackson Arnold hasn’t thrown any INTs and the turnover battle should be key. In addition, 58% of the bets at Circa and 82% of the bets at DraftKings have been on Georgia, according to the Betting Splits Page at VSiN.com, so I’ll fade the public here.

College Football Best Bet: Auburn +4

For more college football Week 7 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 7 hub, exclusively on VSiN.

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