Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes – Friday’s Belmont at Saratoga Card:

Belmont Weekend is here, and we like the Friday and Saturday cards here in the Tuley’s Takes home office. We’ll stick to Friday’s card at Saratoga (yes, this is the second straight year that the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival is being held at the Spa in upstate New York during the ongoing construction at Belmont) and then return Friday to give our takes on Saturday’s card that is of course highlighted by the Belmont Stakes and the much-anticipated rematch between Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty and Preakness winner Journalism (after the former 3-year-old skipped the latter race).

While the Friday cards the day before the Derby and Preakness are highlighted by the 3-year-old fillies running in the Kentucky Oaks and Black-Eyed Susan (and we did score with a nice winner on the BES undercard with Awesome Aaron at 7-1 in the Pimlico Special), Belmont/Saratoga’s Acorn takes a back seat to the turf races in my opinion, basically because after handicapping the card I’m not going to try to beat the undefeated Good Cheer (winner of the Kentucky Oaks five weeks ago and 7-for-7 lifetime).

Instead, with six stakes races on the day, including four Grade 1 races, an argument could be made for any of them to be the co-feature, especially the turf races. But let’s start with one race on the dirt before moving to the grass.

Ogden Phipps Stakes (Grade 1, $500,000)

Saratoga Race Course, Race 9, 4:28 p.m. ET

Tuley’s Take: This mile and an eighth race for fillies and mares, four years old and up, is wide-open with five of the seven entrants between 5-2 and 9-2. But even though the price is shorter than I usually prefer to play, I love one of the 9-2 shots in #7 Randomized, who wired the field for supertrainer Chad Brown in this race last year when it was also run at Saratoga. She breaks from the far outside (which isn’t too far outside in just a seven-horse field), but looks to the lone speed and should get right to the front under jockey Joel Rosario like she did in her last race, the Grade 1 La Troienne at Churchill Downs on Derby Weekend. They gave up the lead and finished third to Raging Sea, who is the 5-2 chalk here, but Randomized is certainly capable of turning the tables at a better price. 

Wagers: #7 Randomized to Win.

Belmont Gold Cup Stakes (Grade 2, $250,000)

Saratoga Race Course, Race 10, 5:08 p.m. ET

Tuley’s Take: The Belmont Gold Cup Stakes is run at the very long distance of two miles and the winner earns a spot in Australia’s famous Melbourne Cup on Tuesday, Nov. 4. Some of these entrants (like 2-1 favorite Limited Liability, 3-1 second choice Flatten the Curve and 30-1 longshot Lord Flintshire) have run even longer distances, but it’s a rarity in this country to be going two miles. Last year, this race was won by The Grey Wizard, trained by Graham Motion, and I swear it’s not a hunch play that I’m landing on #6 The Ginger Wizard, coincidentally trained by Motion. This 4-year-old gelding has gone this distance before, finishing fourth, but obviously a good sign that Motion knows what it takes, and I’m sure he’s motivated to repeat with a different horse. 

Wagers: #6 The Ginger Wizard to Win and Place.

New York Stakes (Grade 1, $750,000)

Saratoga Race Course, Race 12, 6:25 p.m. ET

Tuley’s Take: After the Acorn is run at Race 11, we return to the turf with the Grade 1 New York Stakes. This is more of the type of turf race we’re used to handicapping here in the states at a mile and three-sixteenths. She Feels Pretty is the overwhelming 3-5 morning-line favorite off three straight Graded 1 stakes wins, but unlike Good Cheer in the Acorn, I’m going to try to beat her. She Feels Pretty will be coming from off the pace, but so should my value play, #1 Forever After All, at the much juicier price of 10-1 for trainer Brendan Walsh. This 6-year-old mare romped by nine lengths last time out in the Grade 3 Bewitch at Keeneland, and we’re looking for a repeat under jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. 

Wagers: #1 Forever After All to Win (Place if 10-1 or higher).

Just A Game Stakes (Grade 1, $500,000)

Saratoga Race Course, Race 13, 7:04 p.m. ET

Tuley’s Take: I like all my above plays, but two races after the Acorn in the Just A Game Stakes – which seems like an afterthought even though it’s yet another Grade 1 race – I love #1 Dynamic Pricing at the dynamic morning-line price of 12-1 for trainer Chad Brown. I’m sure many handicappers will draw a line through our filly with underrated jockey Dylan Davis as regular jock Jose Ortiz is on one of Brown’s other entries, Segesta, but this isn’t “jockey racing” and I’m sticking with Dynamic Pricing, who should get a ground-saving trip from the rail to set up her consistent late kick. 

Wagers: #1 Dynamic Pricing to Win and Place.

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