UC Irvine vs. CSUN

While Michigan State vs. Purdue is easily the biggest game on the slate for Thursday, the biggest mid-major game is UC Irvine vs. CSUN, which is Cal State University Northridge. Not only do we have a fascinating mascot matchup here between the Anteaters and Matadors, but these two teams are tied for first place in the Big West. Hawaii is also in that mix and they’re on the mainland this weekend to face UC Davis and Cal State Fullerton.

Head-to-head results and tiebreakers become very important as the calendar flips to March. Both UC Irvine and CSUN have split the regular season meetings with Hawaii, but the important one here is that the Anteaters beat the Matadors 85-71 way back on Dec. 6 in the other head-to-head matchup between these two teams. Back then, that was just the second conference game for each team. Now, they’re both 11-5 in Big West play going into this one.

This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.

This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 25, 4:00 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.

UC Irvine vs. CSUN (-1.5, 153.5)

Embed from Getty Images

10 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

The Matadors are on quite the heater. They’ve reeled off seven wins in a row, including road victories over UC Santa Barbara and Long Beach State by four combined points last weekend. UC Irvine, meanwhile, comes in off of a home loss to UC San Diego last Saturday and they’ve dropped three of their last five. The loss at the hands of the Tritons was the first conference loss at home for the Anteaters, who previously lost on the road to Hawaii, UC Davis, UC Santa Barbara, and Cal Poly.

Stepping up in class has not been kind to UC Irvine this season. They are 12-0 in Quadrant 4 games, but 3-7 in Quadrant 3 games and 1-3 in Quadrant 2 games. This visit to Northridge counts as a Q3 contest. CSUN is actually 7-3 in Q3 games and 8-2 in Q4 games, but 1-4 in Q2 games and 0-1 in Quadrant 1 games. One of those Q2 losses was the first meeting against the Anteaters.

While the 14-point finish makes it look like the first game was a blowout, CSUN actually led for most of the first 30 minutes of the game. With five minutes left, the Anteaters were up by one point. They finished the game on a 17-4 run to put some distance in the final score. Both teams had issues finishing at the rim, going a combined 25-of-55 on what should have been a bunch of high-percentage looks. They did shoot 17-of-41 from 3, but both teams also missed seven free throws. For a game that finished with 156 points, there were some points left on the rim.

Ever since head coach Andy Newman came over from Cal State San Bernardino, his teams have been among the league leaders in shot attempts at the rim. This year’s squad has a 49.2% shot share on Close Twos as defined by Torvik. The unfortunate thing, and what was evident in the first matchup, is how good the Anteaters are on defense at the tin. Moreover, how good Kyle Evans is. Evans leads the nation in blocked shots by 0.5 blocks per game with 3.4, so he’s well above the rest. Even the shots he doesn’t block end up getting altered.

Opponents are only shooting 45.2% on those Close Two shot attempts. CSUN was 13-of-31 in the first game on those shots against what is the nation’s best 2P% defense. In fact, UC Irvine is third in the nation in eFG% defense and far and away the best in both stats in conference play. Big West teams are only shooting 40.9% on 2s against UCI. The next closest team is UC San Diego at 46.7%. The offense is hit or miss, but the Anteaters defense is almost always a hit.

Evans had 16 rebounds in the first game and 12 points with three blocks. Five Anteaters had at least 10 points, while four players had at least 11 points for the Matadors. In case you want to feel old, Larry Hughes II is CSUN’s leading scorer with 18.2 PPG. Josiah Davis has averaged 14.8 PPG and 7.3 APG. Hughes is the jump shooter with 191 3-point attempts. Davis only has 21 despite leading the team in Usage Rate. He’s a major slasher for them with a team-high 250 Close Two shot attempts.

UC Irvine vs. CSUN Prediction

The first game between these two was played to 70 possessions and went Over this posted total despite some pretty poor conversion rates at the rim. The Matadors play at the third-highest adjusted tempo in the nation and this is a big game on their home floor, so I’ll assume that they’d like to force the issue. While UC Irvine has some offensive issues, they’re also shooting 37.4% from 3 in conference play and CSUN is around 35%. With how aggressively the Matadors attack the rim and the glass, they’re going to test this Irvine defense to be sure.

Pick: Over 153.5

Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the college basketball games on our Pro Picks Page.

See our College Basketball Page for more previews and predictions.

The post UC Irvine vs. CSUN College Basketball Prediction February 26, 2026 appeared first on VSiN.