UFC Azerbaijan Predictions:

Baku, Azerbaijan, on the banks of the Caspian Sea, hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night Hill vs. Roundtree event. Twelve fights are scheduled in the large 30-foot octagon in front of a raucous Azerbaijanian crowd. As expected, several athletes from the general region of Azerbaijan will compete. 

In almost every matchup on this slate, the UFC has paired foreign combatants to act as the heel and compete against the regional Muslim athletes highlighted on this fight card.

Favorites in the UFC are winning with a 65.2% success rate, so dog hunting must be done with caution and research. 

Let us get into a couple of the more interesting bouts on this fight card.

Khalil Rountree -155 vs. Jamahal Hill +125 

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds) main event

Prior to his spectacular showing last October against then-champion Alex Pereira, Rountree had rattled off five straight light heavyweight victories, which propelled him into that Pereira championship opportunity. 

In that championship fight, Rountree focused on his forte: striking. It so happens that the Pereira forte’ is also stand-up striking, and in this war, Pereira battered Rountree in epic fashion, ending the bout in the fourth round.

Rountree won an abundance of respect in that Pereira fight, but it remains to be seen what effects, if any, linger after such a comprehensive beatdown. 

At his best, Rountree is a forward-pressing power striker/kicker who is explosive on offense. Still, defensively, he lacks evasive movement and appropriate strike defense, as evidenced by his -.78 significant strike differential per five minutes. 

In Jamahal Hill, we get an athlete who is singularly dimensioned, similar to his opponent. However, Hill possesses some amount of grappling ability to complement the many physical advantages he possesses in this matchup.

Hill has three inches of height, five inches of reach, and a one-year age edge over his opponent, all of which heap advantage in a stand-up war to Hill. 

Utilizing those physical advantages and supplemented with a dynamic positive significant strike differential per five minutes of fight time of 3.03 will present Hill with similar opportunities to damage Rountree as effectively as did Pereira. 

This main event will be waged on the feet, which will thrill the Azerbaijan crowd because Roundtree will come straight at Hill to engage. Hill will acquiesce in that he’ll wage war standing, but he will require appropriate distance to damage Roundtree in a similar manner to what Pereira did many months ago.

I am not a fan of Hill, but in this fight, against this opponent and in this situation, I feel it would be irresponsible to overlook the advantages that Hill has in this fight. 

At open, this fight was lined Hill -205 and Rountree +170, which may have been too heavy a price on Hill, but the market snagging Rountree off that last devastating loss and projecting him into the favorite position in this fight seems illogical to me. 

UFC Azerbaijan Best Bet: Jamahal Hill +125
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rounds Under -215

Someone is going down.

Ignacio Bahamondes -120 vs. Rafael Fiziev +100 

Lightweight (155lbs.) co-main event

Bahamondes, a Chilean boxer/striker, is now training in Chicagoland with Belal Muhammad and camp, which has led Bahamondes to understand that in today’s UFC, championship-level athletes arrive to compete with a well-rounded fight repertoire.

Bahamondes is a dominating kickboxing talent, but his evolution as a championship-level mixed martial artist depends on him attaining a more complete wrestling/grappling base, which takes years to acquire, not months.

Bahamondes is unusually tall/long for the division; he is forceful, durable, fleet afoot, and quite dangerous if he is allowed to work from a standing position and in space.

Born in Korday, Kazakhstan, to an Azerbaijani father, Bahamondes’ opponent Saturday is Rafael Fiziev, the head striking coach at Pucket’s Tiger Muay Thai gym. 

Fiziev, who will own the local crowd, has a solid wrestling base, as does any Kazakstani athlete, but he is also decorated with a blue belt in BJJ. Still, it is in the damage he does from his hands/feet that fight fans observe Fiziev’s ability to destroy. 

Fiziev, off three straight losses, may be getting discounted by the result of those setbacks, while simultaneously the premium on Bahamondes has risen based on the momentum he brings into this battle, based on his last three bouts. 

Interestingly, Fiziev rarely utilizes his grappling in fights, preferring instead to chop down opponents with his bludgeoning kicks, heavy hands, and unrelenting forward-pressing attack. 

This fight opened Fiziev -205 to Bahamondes +175, and as can be seen, the market attacked that positive price on Bahamondes. While the Chilean fighter sports substantial height, reach, and age advantages in this fight, it must be stated that Fiziev has faced the more stringent competition despite what his record states.

A long, tall Chilean striking savant faces a short, compact howitzer of a Kazakhstani striker. These two will meet Saturday night to entertain us, and this fight should surely be one of the most competitive and brutal affairs on the slate. 

Bahamondes, winner of his last three straight, steps up in level of opponent here. Fiziev must rebound off those losses to ranked opponents, two to Gaethje and one in between to Mateusz Gamrot, in which there is no shame at all. 

The opening number in this fight may have been a touch too complimentary to Fiziev. However, the current line is overplayed and too complementary to Bahamondes at this stage of his fight evolution. 

UFC Azerbajian Best Bet Rafael Fiziev +110
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -150

Catch all my final UFC releases Friday early morning (because of the time difference from Azerbaijan to the United States) on the ‘Bout Business podcast exclusively at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the bouts!

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