Houston hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night Strickland vs. Hernandez fight card. The event is scheduled for 14 bouts in the large 30-foot octagon and in front of a tumultuous Texas crowd.
Eight of the 14 bouts feature fighters from welterweight (170 pounds) to heavyweight, so the matchmakers have stacked this slate with combatants whose finish rates stand the highest in the UFC.
Four fighters are from Texas, two face fighters that have to travel from abroad into the Lone Star State to compete, so there may be advantage in understanding which bouts those are.
Five bouts feature fighters with at least a five-year youth advantage. Those fighters realizing a 5+ year youth advantage win at a 60% clip, so there is also advantage in understanding each fighter’s age besides where they arrive from, who they’ve competed against, and how long their UFC tenure has been.
Favorites (26-8) are marching thus far in 2026, with a 76.4% success rate. This number must fall eventually, but when will that begin?
This column stands 1-3 -2.0u thus far in 2026.
Anthony Hernandez -280 vs. Sean Strickland +240
Embed from Getty ImagesMiddleweight (185 pounds) main event
This fight stands out as a highly competitive matchup of extremely well-versed and specialized fighters with similar body types and ages, but slightly varying fight weaponry.
Hernandez, a brown belt in BJJ, is currently the UFC’s fourth-ranked middleweight. He arrives to this duel with a busload of momentum as he’s won his last seven UFC bouts against formidable competition in each fight leading up to this battle against ex-champion Strickland.
Hernandez’s ranking is a direct result of his uber-aggressive fighting style. He enters the octagon with a ‘dog mentality,’ which is clearly visible in the unrelenting forward pressure style of fighting he puts forth in every fight he competes in.
A Brown belt in BJJ, Hernandez utilizes aggressive yet awkward forward pressure when on the feet. He employs that pressure solely to back opponents up, press them against the fence, then clamp onto them, which usually signals the beginning of the end for his bouts, as his submission game is world-class.
Upon engagement, these fights take a positive turn for Hernandez. His BJJ is masterful and seems more advanced than his awarded brown belt would indicate.
Once engaged, Hernandez transitions from a nominal striking mixed martial artist to an enveloping master of submission. His forceful pressure mandates that opponents must expend tremendous amounts of mental and physical energy attempting just to maintain air to breathe or, for the lucky, ample striking space in order to try to thwart Hernandez’s incessant advances.
Hernandez fears nothing. He drives straight into the fire, then he transitions the fight from standing to clasping, then eventually to the floor, where his submission prowess takes over.
Sean Strickland is a former champion at middleweight. He’s a forceful striker/kicker well-versed in boxing/Muay Thai, and his wrestling/grappling is pronounced, as verified by the black belt in BJJ he has earned.
Strickland’s the crazy man in this, or any fight. His diversity of attack, his complex melding of fight styles, and his mental toughness together bring out an ultra-aggressive fighter who utilized forceful forward pressure himself with great benefit.
Where Hernandez uses that unrelenting forward pressure to engage and eventually grapple, Strickland uses it to back opponents up, then set up his striking and kicking, using knees, fists, elbows, and anything he can hurl to damage the opponent.
Neither of these men tires, EVER, and it is in this capacity of this confrontation that I handicap this fight to be won. The man who shows fatigue first will be the one forced to fend off the other’s advances.
For Hernandez, his single point of focus is to drive this fight to the mat, where he will seemingly have the capacity to gain top position and then flex his methodology upon Strickland.
Strickland’s goal will be to back Hernandez up and batter him on the feet. Strickland’s striking acumen is more refined and diverse than Hernandez’s.
If Stirckland can keep this fight standing, he has every advantage in this bout. He can win this battle utilizing deft takedown defense and a forceful forward-pressing barrage of strikes/kicks, provided he can mentally keep on task, for as mentioned, this cat is a wildcard.
Hernandez is calm in the heat of battle, consistent in executing his plan, and determined to ground any opponent. That blueprint has delivered him into this foundational fight against the former champion.
Hernandez may be more of a challenge mentally for Strickland than physically, as Strickland can be wild. He often varies from any plan (if he has one at all). Where Hernandez is calm in his method of attack, Strickland is emotional and can rise to great effectiveness when things go his way or be forced to react from one of the many mental blunders he has made during his UFC career.
Strickland’s erratic nature in the cage sometimes works greatly to his favor, but sometimes it costs him the chance to be competitive. In this fight, it’s 50/50 whether he adopts the Coach Nicksick plan and executes it for 25 minutes.
We have two charging rams that will attack the other from the opening bell. Hernandez will try to maneuver the fight to the clinch and then the takedown. Strickland will try to overwhelm the incoming grappler with a diversity of kicks, fists, elbows, and knees from every conceivable angle.
It is in the wild, maniacal execution of his striking where Strickland could find himself landing flush shots as Hernandez attempts to close distance or perhaps leave himself open for the takedown. Both are in play, and both will define the fight.
Should Strickland be able to keep this fight standing, he can certainly win this battle. However, should he make one mistake, he may find himself enveloped in the guard of Hernandez, and then he’ll be reacting to the plan and attack of Hernandez. That may well be a futile battle.
It’s also important to understand that the UFC views Strickland as dangerous and potentially brand-tarnishing. If we see a close decision, who knows how this fight could be judged?
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -145
Points Handicap: The points handicap in this fight is Strickland +9.5 -120. Should Hernandez win all five rounds, however, that handicap loses. Should this fight be competitive, even a four rounds to one result on all three judges’ cards would grade Strickland a winner. I do not believe Hernandez finishes Strickland, and I believe this line is too high on the favorite.
Ante Delija -140 vs. Serghei Spivac +120
Heavyweight (265 pounds)
In this battle, heavyweights face off with their own style of fighting.
Moldovan fighter Spivac has UFC experience in his corner, along with a more developed grappling acumen. With an 8-6 record in UFC competition, Spivac has more UFC cage time as well. He has faced a stouter set of UFC adversaries than his opponent.
‘The Polar Bear,’ as Spivac is nicknamed, is relatively slow for an undersized 240-pound heavyweight and must realize inside position, the clinch, and eventual ground control in order for him to take advantage in fights.
Where Spivac can struggle is against athletic, nimble, powerful foes who use footwork and mobility to create angles for damaging kicks and strikes. Five of six UFC losses, all finishes for Spivac, have come against athletic competition that have been able to keep the confrontation against him standing, then deliver power shots to the relatively slow, lumbering Moldovan mauler.
In Ante Delija, we have the template in the style of an athlete who can provide problems for the plodding Polar Bear.
Delija, a Croatian, is nimble in the cage. While athletic, he will be the significantly larger, more fluid-moving man in the cage and the more powerful striker in this confrontation.
The Delija blueprint for success will be to use his athleticism to keep this fight standing. Delija is in an opportune situation, facing off against a slow, deliberate grappler who will need to envelop the Croatian to find any success.
For Spivac to execute grappling exchanges, he will need to enter the firestorm, but that is where the quicker, more refined, powerful striking of Delija should take over.
Delija opened -185 in this matchup. The number has been compressed to its current price of -140 (Superbook)
Look for the Delija speed, power, and footwork to be the difference in this war, resulting in a fight that will not make the full fifteen minutes.
I’ll gladly grab the price reduction on the Croatian athlete Delija in this spot.
UFC Houston Best Bet: Ante Delija -140 (Circa)
Total in this fight 1.5 Rds Over -130
Carlos Leal -130 vs. Chidi Njokuani +110
Middleweight (185 pounds)
This fight will be decided via finish. Njokuani is four inches taller and sports a six-inch reach advantage—tremendous benefits to have in the striking match this fight looks to be. However, the Texan Njokuani, fighting in front of his home crowd, is 37 years old, giving his Brazilian competitor a six-year age advantage.
Carlos Leal is a member of the Fighting Nerds team from Brazil. Leal may be the least talented of that fighting team, but he arrives as the younger athlete who is potentially on the bounce after being stopped by 41-year-old Russian striker Muslim Salikov in his last bout. An embarrassment indeed.
Leal gives away height, reach and experience here, besides having to travel into Texas to take on a Lone Star fighter.
Njokuani enters this battle off his own loss, a first-round submission at the hands of Australian Jake Matthews.
Njokuani has about six minutes of ferocity in his fight game before his mental toughness comes into question, while Leal’s fight IQ is dense as granite, so each man has his challenges to overcome in this fight.
This bout could go either man’s way, but I do believe this fight will NOT go the distance.
UFC Houston Best Bet: Chidi Njokuani +110 (DraftKings)
Based on home crowd favoritism
Total in this fight is lined 1.5 Rds Under -150
Friday midday, the ‘Bout Business Podcast (5-7 +.50 on the year) drops across all podcast platforms and is also available at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
The post UFC Houston: Strickland vs. Hernandez Odds, Picks, Predictions and Best Bets appeared first on VSiN.
Leave A Comment