El Modelo (The First Strike predictive model) went 6-2 last week at UFC 320 and now sits at 65.58% overall on the year. But this is a low-volume card—a classic pay-per-view hangover event. We’re pulling back compared to the fireworks of UFC 320 for UFC Rio.

🎧 This week on First Strike Dave Ross and Rob Moreno were joined by special guest Dan Vreeland:

Let’s dive into the breakdowns, lean into the data, and identify where the value lies on a tricky slate.

Julia Polastri (-450) vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+350)

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This is a classic “veteran vs newcomer” kind of matchup. Polastri enters the model for the first time—1-2 in the UFC and coming off a decision loss to Loopy Godinez. Across from her is the longtime vet Karolina Kowalkiewicz, who’s now 40 and coming off back-to-back losses after a four-fight win streak.

Neither fighter brings an impressive advanced stat profile.

  • Karolina: 48% xR% (across 18 UFC fights)
  • Julia: 45% xR% (just 3 UFC fights)

Polastri hasn’t shown much at this level—her lone win is a split decision, and she hasn’t really elevated post-Contender Series. Karolina, for all her experience, is clearly nearing the end, but she does get the strength of schedule nod.

Striking numbers? Virtually identical.

  • Both land about 5.5 significant strikes/minute
  • Both absorb exactly 5.51 significant strikes/minute
  • Zero knockdowns between them

If there’s an edge, it might come in wrestling.

  • Julia: 75% takedown accuracy, though just 37% control time
  • Karolina: 23% accuracy, with solid 75% takedown defense

The model does score it for Polastri—but it’s weak. And with odds at -450, it’s way too rich. But at +350, Karolina could be a live dog in a likely decision fight. A split unit is worth the risk. Considering Polastri’s low xR% in such a short amount of time, the veteran could win a few points and steal a round or two in this one.

Also worth considering: Over 4.5 as a parlay piece for your night.

Valter Walker (-320) vs. Mohammed Usman (+250)

Two heavyweights with one combined UFC knockout. Not exactly your typical “big boys swing” setup.

Walker is on a three-fight submission streak and enters 3-1 in the UFC. Usman, older at 36, is just 1-2 in his last three and hasn’t exactly impressed. Usman will have a slight reach edge, but Walker will tower at 6’6” vs 6’2”.

Big stat gap in performance:

  • Walker: 75% xR%
  • Usman: 53% xR%

That type of xR% for Usman is a concern. 4-2 in the UFC yet losing a lot of rounds along the way is not a recipe for longterm success.

Despite the size, Walker isn’t a high-volume striker:

  • 1.90 sig. strikes landed/minute, but absorbs just 2.89/minute

Usman’s volume is better:

  • 3.85 sig. strikes landed/minute, but absorbs 4.27/minute
  • Just 1 UFC knockdown in six fights

Where it shifts: grappling. Walker does one thing and he does it pretty well.

  • Walker: 8 takedowns, 67% accuracy, and a massive 94% control rate
  • Usman’s takedown defense is 67%, but hasn’t faced a grappler like this

The model gives Walker a C grade. He’s currently -320, and that’s a bit steep for a heavyweight with low volume. Not safe enough to parlay either. Heavyweights bring added wildcards such as potential power and lack of gas tanks.

What does intrigue? Walker by Submission at +175 for his fourth submission in a row. That trend will end eventually, but probably not when he’s stepping down in competition as he is at UFC Rio. That’s our bet.

Deiveson Figueiredo (+240) vs Montel Jackson (-300)

Deiveson, the former Flyweight champ, is 3-2 since moving up to Bantamweight. He’s also 37, coming off back-to-back losses, and the last one (vs Cory Sandhagen) ended via knee injury. Is this a last hurrah?

Across from him is Montel Jackson, riding a six-fight win streak and looking like a possible problem at Bantamweight.

Let’s start with one of the first red flags for Deiveson — his xR%.

He’s sitting at just 45%, which is concerningly low for a former champ. That means he’s losing a lot of the minute-to-minute battles in the cage.

Compare that to Montel Jackson’s 80% xR%, one of the best marks we’ll see on this card, and it paints a clear picture: Jackson knows how to win rounds.

Physically, it’s a mismatch as well:

  • Jackson: 5’10”, 75” reach
  • Deiveson: 5’5”, 68” reach

That’s a 7 inch reach advantage kids.

Striking advantage leans Jackson:

  • Deiveson: -0.81 differential, absorbs 3.64 strikes/minute
  • Jackson: +1.74 differential, absorbs just 1.35/minute
  • 81% head strike defense for Jackson as well

Both have power (23 combined knockdowns), but Jackson’s defense is elite.

And on the ground?

  • Jackson: 65% control rate, 60% takedown accuracy
  • Deiveson’s defense is just 58%

The model loves Jackson here. He passes with flying colors—but he’s priced like it at -300.

This is tricky. Deiveson’s not easy to finish—his losses are mostly doctor stoppages or injuries. So if Jackson wins, Decision at +115 would be the play.

Otherwise, consider Jackson a parlay piece.

Charles Oliveira (-120) vs Mateusz Gamrot (+100)

Charles Oliveira returns quickly after being KO’d by Ilia Topuria in June. That’s concerning. Even more so when you realize his last win was last November over Michael Chandler. Gamrot steps in on short notice after Rafael Fiziev pulled out—but the matchup may actually favor him.

Let’s talk stats.

  • Oliveira: 59% xR%
  • Gamrot: 74% xR%

Both guys land ~3.4 strikes/minute with similar differentials. But Gamrot is far better defensively:

  • Gamrot: 71% head strike defense
  • Oliveira: 54% head strike defense

And while Oliveira is the sub artist (16 UFC subs), Gamrot can control fights.

  • 49 UFC takedowns, 7.3 attempted per 5 mins, 90% control rate
  • Also sports 91% takedown defense

The model leans Gamrot, but it’s tight. The odds reflect that as we’ve seen this move from a pick ‘em to to their current odds. Still, at +100, I don’t hate the number. It’s some of the friendlier odds on the card. I’ll be playing it small. The short turnaround for Oliveira is too hard to ignore for me.

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