We’re two cards into the new UFC calendar, and the model is off to a nice start. 10-3 overall after another profitable 4-1 week. But as always, in sports betting, hot streaks don’t last forever. Regression is always lurking, and the key is staying disciplined.

This Saturday, the UFC returns to the newly named MTEA APEX for UFC Vegas 113, headlined by Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira. It’s the first non-title event of the year and the beginning of a long stretch of Fight Nights ahead. Betting volume may be lighter over the next few weeks, but that doesn’t mean value isn’t out there. As always, we’re letting the numbers guide the way.

Let’s dig into some matchups, the model’s edges, and how I’m approaching this slate from a betting perspective.

And a friendly reminder, The First Strike podcast is available now, wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube.

Let’s get it going.

Cong Wang vs Eduarda Moura

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We kick things off in the flyweight division with a compelling matchup between two women both sitting at 3-1 in the UFC.

Cong Wang, aka The Joker, enters on a two-fight win streak and has looked sharp her last two fights out. She hasn’t just been winning, she’s been favored in every UFC fight so far, and for good reason. Her xR% sits at 86%, one of the strongest marks on this entire card.

Eduarda Moura is no slouch either. She’s also on a two-fight streak and coming off a solid win over Lauren Murphy. But there are question marks. Moura came into the UFC as a strawweight and missed weight twice, forcing the move to flyweight. This will be her third fight at the new weight class, and the matchup isn’t doing her any favors.

When you look at the numbers, the contrast in striking styles is stark.

  • Cong Wang is a distance striker through and through. She’s spent 98% of her fight time at range and lands a blistering 7.58 significant strikes per minute. Even more impressive? She absorbs just 2.84 per minute, giving her an elite +4.74 strike differential.
  • Eduarda? She’s not built for that kind of firefight. Her output is just 3.16 per minute, and her accuracy (38%) lags well behind Cong’s (56%).

Now, if there’s a path for Moura, it’s going to be through control and pressure. She’s logged 13 takedowns across her 4 UFC fights and controls a whopping 85% of her clinch/ground time. She goes after it too. Averaging 6.2 takedown attempts per 5 minutes.

The problem? Cong Wang has faced 7 takedown attempts in her UFC career and stuffed all 7. Can Moura push her enough to make it her fight?

The model picks a side here with confidence. It gives Cong Wang an 82.27% win probability, and that’s in line with her current odds of around -340 (77%). Not much straight betting value at that price, but she’s a solid parlay anchor.

Props could be where the value lies as well:

  • If you think Moura can hang tough, Cong by decision is around -110.
  • But if her defensive gaps catch up to her, Cong by KO/TKO at +400 could absolutely be live, especially with that kind of output edge.

Jean Matsumoto vs Farid Basharat

If the first fight is about dominance, this one’s about control.

Jean Matsumoto is still early in his UFC run, coming in off a decision win over Miles Johns. He’s shown flashes of promise, but we can’t ignore the red flags, especially when you dig into the numbers. His xR% sits at just 45%, at a 3-1 record in the UFC ,that means that even in fights he’s won he hasn’t been winning rounds clearly. That’s dangerous when you’re facing someone like Farid Basharat.

Farid’s the kind of fighter who does everything clean. He’s undefeated at 14-0, with a perfect 5-0 start to his UFC career. An xR% of 76%. His last win was a decision over Chris Gutierrez in October, and while he doesn’t always overwhelm guys with volume, he breaks them down over time.

And that’s exactly what we see in the stats:

  • Jean lands a respectable 5.09 significant strikes per minute, but his differential is basically zero. He absorbs just as much as he gives (-0.02).
  • Farid doesn’t throw as much (3.19 per minute), but he’s efficient, boasting a +0.56 differential and a strong 69% head strike defense.

It’s not just the striking where Basharat shines either. It’s his ability to dictate where the fight happens. He controls 85% of his clinch and ground time, and he’s already logged 16 takedowns at 44% accuracy.

Now, let’s talk about Jean’s takedown defense, or lack thereof.

He’s been taken down 17 times in 4 UFC fights. That’s… not great. His defense rate sits at 51%, and while it’s impressive that he’s won three of those four despite giving up takedowns, you have to wonder when that dam finally breaks.

The model certainly thinks it could be here. It gives Farid Basharat a 76.09% win probability, right in line with his market price around -275. That’s tight to the number, and not confident in the score to probably just throw into a parlay.

But if we’re hunting props, Farid by decision is sitting around -140, and that feels like the most likely path. Jean’s been durable even when things go sideways, and Farid isn’t exactly a finisher, he’s a technician. Don’t be surprised if this one plays out over all three rounds with Farid dictating pace and position from start to finish.

Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira

We wrap things up with a main event that feels like a measuring stick for both guys.

Mario Bautista comes into this one looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Umar Nurmagomedov. A fight where, to be honest, there was no shame in the result. Before that, he had a solid win streak going, with names like Ricky Simon, Patchy Mix (who left plenty to be desired in his UFC run), and Jose Aldo (albeit a past-prime version) on the résumé. He’s 13 UFC fights deep now, and this matchup could say a lot about whether he’s still climbing or starting to plateau.

On the other side is the wildcard: Vinicius “Lok Dog” Oliveira. Undefeated in the UFC and riding a six-fight win streak overall, he’s coming off a solid decision win over Kyler Phillips. His resume may not look as polished as Mario’s, but his performances speak for themselves. He’s got 18 career finishes, 16 by knockout, and his xR% is sitting at 67%, just a tick above Mario’s 61%.

The striking metrics are where this one gets interesting.

Both guys are active. Mario lands 5.58 significant strikes per minute, and Vinicius is right behind at 5.06. But it’s the efficiency that stands out to me. Mario has a strong +1.40 differential, but Vinicius takes it to another level with a +2.14.

And here’s a kicker, Mario’s been knocked down twice in the UFC, while Vinicius has shown serious power behind his shots. He might not throw a ton, but when he connects, it matters.

Now, grappling-wise, both can mix it in, but again, Vinicius has been more efficient. He’s got a 65% control rate of clinch and ground time, and he’s landed 7 takedowns at 50% accuracy. Mario’s scored a few more overall (13 takedowns), but they’ve come at 32% accuracy, and he’s giving up takedowns at a 55% defense rate.

All signs point to this being the type of fight that’s going to test Mario’s composure. Vinicius is younger, carries big power, and the model loves him in this spot.

How much? Try a 68.41% win probability, which is a great edge compared to his market price of +175 when we grabbed him. That number has already started to drop to +150 in spots, so value is tightening fast.

If last week was all chalk, this week we’ve got a live dog in the main event. And it’s not just some wishful play, the model sees a real opportunity here. Mario might have the name value and the UFC tenure, but Vinicius has the tools for an upset, and he’s making this leap at just the right time.

That wraps up this week’s breakdown for UFC Vegas 113. The model has started the year hot, but with a string of lower-profile Fight Nights on deck, we’ll be staying selective. Only firing when the numbers tell us to.

Be sure to check out the First Strike podcast—now available on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts—for even more analysis, insight, and betting previews. This week we were joined by Kyle Anthony from WagerTalk.

And don’t forget to follow us on X: @TheRobbeo & @drosssports

We’ll see you next fight week. Best of luck on the card.

Model Prediction | Win Probability %

  • Vinicius Oliveira | 68.41%
  • Kyoji Horiguchi | 69.47%
  • Michal Oleskiejczuk | 78.81%
  • Farid Basharat | 76.09%
  • Ketlen Souza | 66.65%
  • Said Nurmagomedov | 53.69%
  • Cong Wang | 82.27%

*BOLD means the model says, Go

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