Game: North Carolina Tar Heels at California Golden Bears

Date: October 17th at 10:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

The North Carolina Tar Heels and Cal Golden Bears will face off this Friday night, with both teams coming off a much-needed bye week. Carolina has gotten off to a rough start, with many calling for Bill Belichick’s job just five games into the season. They’ve been one of the worst teams statistically in the FBS on both sides of the ball and now must travel across the country to see if they can muster something up this season and get things back on track. Cal hasn’t been anything special in its own right but has held its own defensively while struggling at times to find consistency on offense. If this game were played on a neutral field, it might be fairly even, but since it’s in Berkeley, California, and the Tar Heels haven’t proven competitive to this point in the season against Power Four opponents, it could be another tough outing for them.

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Weather

Weather shouldn’t play much of a factor in this game, with temperatures in the mid-50s to low-60s and a 0% chance of precipitation. Winds will be minimal as well, averaging around 2 mph with occasional gusts reaching up to 7 mph.

Betting Overview

This ACC matchup opened with the Golden Bears favored by nearly two touchdowns at -12.5, but sharp money has come in on the Tar Heels, moving the line to between -9.5 and -10.5 depending on the book. We’ve seen similar movement with the moneyline, as Carolina opened at +360 and now sits between +300 and +310, while Cal opened at -470 and now finds itself between -375 and -400. The total has ticked down slightly from its opening line of 48.5 to 47.5.

Power Ratings

  • ESPN FPI: Cal currently ranks 81st in the ESPN FPI, while Carolina sits at 100th. This gives Cal +3.9 points and UNC +8.7 points versus the FBS average on a neutral field. Using those numbers, Cal would project as roughly a 5-point favorite over UNC on a neutral field, and factoring in home-field advantage, they’d be about 7.5- to 8-point favorites under this model.
  • SP+: The SP+ metric is slightly higher on Cal, rating them 78th (+3.0 points versus the FBS average), while UNC sits lower at 103rd (+9.3 points versus the FBS average). Based on those figures, Cal would be about a 6-point favorite on a neutral field, and roughly an 8.5- to 9-point favorite when accounting for home-field advantage.

Betting Trends

UNC hasn’t been the team to bet ATS so far, sitting at 2-3 overall, and failing to cover in all three games as an underdog. They are, however, 1-1 on the road. Totals have trended toward the under, hitting in three of five games, including both contests away from home.

Cal sits exactly at .500 on the season ATS with a 3-3 record. They haven’t been great at covering at home, going 1-2 in Berkeley, and 0-1 as a home favorite. Unders have also been slightly more favorable, hitting in three of six with one push. The over/under has gone 1-1-1 in the Golden Bears’ home games, with the under cashing in their lone matchup as a home favorite.

Final Thoughts

In this unusual ACC matchup, we have two teams looking to salvage something from their seasons. UNC has yet to be competitive against a Power 4 opponent, while Cal has been inconsistent throughout the year. These teams do match up fairly well against each other, but I like Cal to come away with the win. However, if the spread remains in double digits, I like UNC to cover.