Game: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Charlotte 49ers

Date: 9/6/2025 at 7:00 PM ET

Where to watch: ESPN+

Outside of Appalachian State fans, many North Carolinians would’ve loved to see this UNC vs. UNC Charlotte matchup feature two 1-0 programs. While both looked decent in the first quarter of their respective Week 1 games, Carolina and Charlotte each ended up on the wrong side of a blowout. For Carolina, there is at least some hope in what quarterback Max Johnson showed late in Monday night’s game, though Belichick has yet to announce who will start Saturday night. Overall, both teams looked rough on both sides of the ball. The Tar Heels finished with 172 yards passing, 50 rushing, and 3 turnovers, while allowing 284 through the air, 258 on the ground, and forcing just 1 turnover. Charlotte posted 142 passing yards, 76 rushing, and 2 turnovers, while giving up 404 through the air, 183 on the ground, and also forcing only 1 turnover.

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Weather

This will be Charlotte’s second game of the season in the city, but their first at home. With kickoff set for 7:00 PM ET, the weather could be hit or miss, with thunderstorm chances hovering in the 40-50% range from kickoff through the likely end of the game. Temperatures will begin in the low 80s and dip into the 70s as the night goes on. Winds should mostly stay mild, averaging around 6 mph, though gusts could reach up to 15 mph, which may create some issues.

Betting Overview

When this game first opened on sportsbooks, the spread was set at Carolina -21.5. After Monday’s letdown, the line has dropped to -13.5 in favor of the Tar Heels at most books, with DraftKings listing them slightly lower at -12.5. The moneyline opened a bit later, so it hasn’t shifted as dramatically, moving from -575 for the Heels and +425 for the 49ers to between -550 and -500 for Carolina, and +375 to +400 for Charlotte. The over/under has ticked up slightly, opening at 47.5 for most books and now sitting at 49.5 nearly everywhere.

The first and only meeting between these two programs came last season in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels won the game, but the 49ers covered the 21.5-point spread in a 38-20 final. The over also hit last year, closing at 48 points.

Betting Trends

UNC enters this week at a rest disadvantage and went 0-3 ATS last season in games when they had less rest. As an away favorite, they finished 1-2-1 a year ago. The under was also notable in both situations, hitting in 3 of 4 games when UNC had a rest disadvantage, and in each instance when they were the away favorite.

Charlotte, on the other hand, was not particularly strong ATS with a rest advantage last year, going 0-2, and just 1-2-0 as a home underdog. With extra rest, the over cashed in both games, while the under was more common when Charlotte was a home underdog, hitting in 2 of the 3 contests.

Final Thoughts

Both programs would love to forget last week ever happened, and what better way to do so than by bouncing back with a win in a new week. The rest disadvantage is somewhat concerning for UNC, but Charlotte doesn’t have the overall talent to truly contend. It may stay close for a while, but I expect the Heels to have a different mindset this week and come away with a win, even if they don’t cover the spread.