After the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, only one local team remains standing — the Duke Blue Devils. As is always the case in March, survival is the name of the game. While Duke hasn’t looked completely dominant through its first two matchups, there were encouraging signs in the second half against TCU. Now, they turn their attention to the St. John’s Red Storm in the Sweet 16.

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Duke: We’ll break down Duke’s path by looking at their odds across the remaining rounds needed to capture a national title.

Starting with their Sweet 16 matchup, Duke is currently listed at -290 to advance past St. John’s, implying a 74.36% chance to reach the Elite 8. Despite not playing their best basketball yet, oddsmakers still view them as a strong favorite in this spot.

Looking at the broader picture in the East Region, Duke still holds the shortest odds to reach the Final Four at -125 (55.56% implied probability). That speaks to both their overall talent and the respect the market still has for their ceiling.

When it comes to reaching the national championship game, Duke actually has the shortest odds in the country at +160 (38.46% implied probability). However, they are no longer the outright favorite to win the title.

For the national championship itself, Duke currently sits at +370 (21.28% implied probability), trailing teams like Arizona and Michigan. That slight drop likely reflects some of their uneven play through the first weekend.

Final Thoughts

Even without playing their cleanest basketball, Duke remains in a strong position moving forward. Their identity hasn’t changed — this team still relies on elite defense to control games and create separation.

Another key factor is the added rest for Patrick Ngongba II, who could see an increased role against St. John’s. If Duke can start putting together more complete performances, they absolutely have the ability to justify — or even outperform — their current odds.

At this point, it’s simple: survive and advance. And Duke is still very much built to do exactly that.