Updated NBA Betting Splits Systems Strategies:

We are at about the halfway point of the 2025-26 NBA regular season. Through Sunday, 1/18, 633 games had been played. That makes it a nice time to go in and study data patterns that have formed in the early part of the season and add to or adjust the DraftKings Betting Splits systems we employ each and every day on our VSiN NBA Analytics Reports. As a general rule, I have always advised to play against the majority bettors at DK unless I post a system that supports their backing. Hopefully you have utilized that advice, as you will see in a bit, that majority NBA bettors have been terrible this season so far. 

Of course, all of the data you need to utilize these systems comes from the Betting Splits pages on VSiN.com. For the most part, much of what we have seen so far this season has closely emulated data from the early part of the last two seasons. I’ll have more on that in a bit, but for now, I have to remind NBA bettors, if you’re an avid player, you cannot afford to be without this expert analysis day in and day out.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

If you’re wondering why the results don’t add up to 633 games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null. 

As I remarked earlier, the majority groups are struggling terribly to start the season. This is not bad news, and in fact, it is quite the opposite, and essentially the basis for why we post this data on the VSiN.com site. We subscribe to the theory that, in general, the public doesn’t win over the long haul, particularly at a book like DraftKings that services all levels of recreational players. 

Unlike recent years, the findings for 2025-26 show little separation in the success levels of the majority handle bettors and majority number of bets groups in each category. Historically, the handle would tend to include a greater percentage of bigger money bettors who are perhaps more “sharp”, while the number of bets groups contains all of the bets that come in, which includes the smallest of recreational bettors’ input. With that not being the case so far this season, we’ll see how it impacts our Betting Splits Systems in a bit.

Every time I do one of these updates, I like to remind readers why I have adopted the strategy of following these betting splits. It was almost three years ago that I set out to study the college football betting splits data provided on VSiN.com by DraftKings. I felt that a book like DraftKings, known for servicing all levels of recreational bettors, providing this type of data would offer a ton of great betting opportunities if savvy bettors knew how to interpret the numbers. As it turns out, I was right, but by somewhat different means than I thought I would find. 

There are usually two common betting generalities for recreational players who wager at places like DraftKings. That is the majority bet favorites on point spreads/money lines and Overs on totals. The numbers are staggering. According to the ticket/handle so far this NBA season, majority wagers were on favorites in about 71% of the games, and on Overs for totals in 85%. 

I personally believe that longevity is critical for bettors when using these Betting Splits effectively, as naturally, bettors can have hot/cold short-term runs within seasons. However, over the long haul is where I find the most effective foundation for the systems I present. As such, I choose, when possible, to simply update the records of the systems I have found over the last 3+ seasons, rather than presenting new ones all the time. With that in mind, here are the updated NBA systems and records with games through Sunday, 1/18. If you haven’t been using these in our daily NBA Analytics Reports, I highly recommend adding it to your handicapping arsenal. 

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DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%).  This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 104-142 ATS (42.3%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -52.2 units for an ROI of -21.2%. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and ROI of -11.8%. 

Here are some more specific money line angles: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1,113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and an ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will again be very significant starting in April.

These last four systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%. 

The betting splits on VSiN.com are running live and will change in the days and hours before game time. If you adopt any of these strategies this season, be sure to visit VSiN.com for the latest numbers.

The data, which we get directly from DraftKings Sportsbook and Circa, is updated every five minutes. 

Also, if you want to see the opening line and the line history, click on the visiting team’s logo. The updates are timestamped. A nice touch is that – if the game is over – you will get a summary that includes the final score, Total result, season Over/Under record for each team, and you can compare the result to what Steve Makinen’s estimated score was. 

Unlimited access to betting splits and the NBA Analytics Reports is available to VSiN Pro subscribers.

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