US Open predictions and best bets for Day 4 – August 27th:
We have reached the final major of the 2025 tennis season, as the US Open is underway from the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. I’m going to be providing you with daily tennis best bets throughout the course of this event, so make sure you’re coming back to VSiN if you’re looking to bet on the action in Flushing Meadows, New York. We’ll continue with some Day 4 picks and predictions for Wednesday, August 27th.
I also post more tennis plays on the Pro Picks page. I occasionally add picks throughout the day, as I like to see how odds are moving. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday from 10:00 am to noon ET. That said, if you like tennis, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Joao Fonseca vs. Tomas Machac
I got burned fading Machac in the opening round, as he absolutely embarrassed Luca Nardi in a 6-3, 6-1, 6-1 opening-round victory. Machac didn’t look good in Canada or Cincinnati, and it has been quite some time since he last looked like a threat at a big tournament. However, with Machac having looked extremely sharp against Nardi, I’m willing to back him against Fonseca. The reality is that Fonseca hasn’t done enough recently to warrant being close to even-money odds against a player with Machac’s talent.
In Cincinnati, Fonseca looked completely out of sorts in a straight-set loss to Terence Atmane. And while Atmane was the story of the tournament, that’s a match that Fonseca really should have won. And not only did the Brazilian look miserable in that match, but a good argument can be made that he didn’t belong there. Fonseca advanced because Alejandro Davidovich Fokina had to withdraw from a match he was winning in the Round of 64.
Fonseca is undoubtedly a big-time talent. That’s why I drove out to the Phoenix Challenger to watch him play up close. There’s Slam-winning ability in the 19-year-old. However, Fonseca needs to work on his court positioning and overall mobility. Until he does, he’s going to remain beatable. And Machac has the type of game that can make the youngster uncomfortable.
It’s also worth noting that the forecast in Flushing Meadows looks reasonable for Wednesday, as the temperature should be in the high 70s and the humidity shouldn’t go above 40%. That should allow Machac’s fragile body to hold up. Though I will be hoping the Czech wins in four or fewer sets. If this one goes the distance, I wouldn’t trust Machac’s legs — especially with Fonseca having the Brazilian crowd there to give him some extra adrenaline.
Bet: Machac ML (-111)
Eliot Spizzirri vs. Luciano Darderi
Embed from Getty ImagesI had Darderi to win his Round of 32 match against Mackenzie McDonald in Winston-Salem last week, but that was because the American was a little banged up and fatigued after a cramp-filled opener. But Darderi still had to fight his tail off to win that one, as it ended up being a 7-6 (5), 6-7 (6), 6-4 win for the Italian. Darderi was hardly impressive throughout that match, and he now has a tricky opponent in the second round here.
Spizzirri just picked up the first Grand Slam main-draw win of his career, taking down Stefan Dostanic in a 7-5, 6-4, 7-6 (4) win. And while he will undoubtedly have to deal with some nerves with this being the furthest he has ever been at a big tournament, I do think his game can frustrate Darderi.
Spizzirri is good at pretty much everything on a tennis court, so Darderi won’t have many weaknesses to poke at. And the American’s backhand has proven to be a big weapon after a few years in which he was forced to strictly slice because of injuries.
If Spizzirri can just lock in and make some first serves, there’s really no reason this can’t be a competitive match. And with Spizzirri being a relentless competitor, and having the home crowd behind him, I’ll take a stab at him edging Darderi out at +142.
Bet: Spizzirri ML (+142)
Caty McNally vs. Emma Navarro
Navarro was able to escape with a 7-6 (9), 6-3 win over Yafan Wang last round, but she’s not going to be sticking around very long if she can’t find another gear. Navarro came into the US Open after losing three consecutive matches, and those defeats came at the hands of Dayana Yastremska, Ella Seidel and Alycia Parks. Those are some brutal losses for a player that has always been dangerous on hard courts.
This entire season has been weird for Navarro. After going 46-22 in 2024, Navarro is just 26-21 this year. Her hold percentage is also down from 70.1% to 65.5%, and her rally tolerance hasn’t been as reliable as usual. With that in mind, I like the idea of taking a chance with McNally, who is more talented than her current ranking suggests.
McNally actually has some momentum coming into this event, as she won two low-level titles in July. She also won a total of three matches in Montreal and Cincinnati. And her loss in Montreal was a competitive three-set loss against Madison Keys. Now that she’s healthy, she should become a real force on the WTA Tour.
Bet: McNally ML (+144)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
Tennis Links
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