US Open predictions and best bets for Day 7 – August 30th
We have reached the final major of the 2025 tennis season, as the US Open is underway from the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. I’m going to be providing you with daily tennis best bets throughout the course of this event, so make sure you’re coming back to VSiN if you’re looking to bet on the action in Flushing Meadows, New York. We’ll continue with some Day 7 picks and predictions for Saturday, August 30th.
I also post more tennis plays on the Pro Picks page. I occasionally add picks throughout the day, as I like to see how odds are moving. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday from 10:00 am to noon ET. That said, if you like tennis, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul
Embed from Getty ImagesDating back to the start of the Phoenix Challenger, Bublik is 35-9 in his last 44 matches. Bublik has always had the talent to compete at the highest level, which is why he has been as high as 17 in the rankings. However, the Russian-born Kazakh has been more locked in than ever, and a new found commitment to the game is paying huge dividends for him. He has three ATP titles this season already.
Bublik has a big serve, legitimate power from the baseline and an ability to mix in some off-speed stuff to keep his opponents off balance. And Bublik has been pressing all the right buttons over the last couple of months, making him a real threat to go deep at every single tournament.
Bublik should now be able to ride his recent momentum to a win over an exhausted Paul. The American, who has played only five matches since Wimbledon, looked pretty miserable in a five-set win over Nuno Borges on Thursday. He wasn’t hitting his forehand well, his serve fell apart late (39% first serve percentage in Set 5) and he wasn’t moving all that well towards the end of that 4.5-hour match. Now, it’s hard to buy into the idea of Paul quickly turning around and beating a player that serves better, and has more overall firepower, than he does.
Paul will have a packed crowd urging him on here, which definitely counts for something. But Bublik’s game and body are in much better places, and I trust him to block out the noise and win his 11th match in a row.
Bet: Bublik ML (-120 – 2 units)
NOTE: You might see better prices out there for this match, but you should pay up to play it at a shop that pays out first-set retirements. Paul is a warrior, so he probably won’t retire in front of an American crowd. But he was going through it towards the end of the Borges match. You’d rather be safe than sorry.
Felix Auger Aliassime vs. Alexander Zverev
Auger Aliassime has played some good tennis in New York thus far, beating Billy Harris and Roman Safiullin in straight sets. However, it does feel like these odds are a bit of an overreaction to what we’ve seen over the last couple of days. Auger Aliassime has largely struggled since the start of the summer, and Zverev is a brutal matchup for him.
While Auger Aliassime is a good server, Zverev is a great one. The German is fifth on the ATP Tour in hold percentage (87.4%) this year, giving him an edge over Auger Aliassime (84.1%) there. And Zverev is much better in pretty much every other part of the game.
The only place Auger Aliassime really has Zverev beat is on the forehand wing, but I don’t see that helping the Canadian to push this match to five. So, I’m banking on Zverev’s advantages everywhere else to lead to a win in four sets, at most. Zverev also has more big-match experience, even if he has struggled to get over the hump against some of the game’s elite players.
Zverev is also 6-2 against Auger Aliassime in his career, and five of the six wins were straight-set victories.
Bet: Zverev -1.5 Sets (-147)
Zizou Bergs vs. Jaume Munar
Bergs got to the third round because Jack Draper was forced to withdraw from the tournament. If not for that, the Belgian likely would have been sent packing quickly. Bergs isn’t a bad player, but this season has gotten away from him. Heading into the US Open, he had lost eight of his previous nine matches, including one against Mark Lajal in the Sumter Challenger. Bergs’ form is just a mess at the moment, and he’s running into a player that is quite dangerous.
Munar isn’t viewed as a great hard-court player, but he has made improvements on this surface. That’s a big part of the reason he’s a career-best 23-19 since the start of 2025. Munar has also looked very good in Flushing, beating Jaime Faria and Gabriel Diallo in straightforward fashion. Those are two players with more pop than Bergs, so the fact that Munar was able to handle them should bode well when looking at this match.
Realistically, the only edge Bergs has over Munar coming into this match is rest. But it’s early enough in the tournament that I’m not worried about that.
Bet: Munar ML (-161 – 1.5 units)
2025 Record: 1037-1027-1 (+35.35 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
Tennis Links
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