US Open predictions and best bets for Day 9 – September 1st
We have reached the final major of the 2025 tennis season, as the US Open is underway from the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. I’m going to be providing you with daily tennis best bets throughout the course of this event, so make sure you’re coming back to VSiN if you’re looking to bet on the action in Flushing Meadows, New York. We’ll continue with some Day 9 picks and predictions for Monday, September 1st.
I also post more tennis plays on the Pro Picks page. I occasionally add picks throughout the day, as I like to see how odds are moving. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday from 10:00 am to noon ET. That said, if you like tennis, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Felix Auger Aliassime vs. Andrey Rublev
Jaume Munar vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Auger Aliassime did a number on me with that win over Alexander Zverev last round. Not only did I have the German to cover a 1.5-set spread, I also had him to reach the quarterfinals. Ultimately, Auger Aliassime turned in a masterful performance, and Zverev’s hamstring tweak prevented him from playing the kind of tennis he needed to top the Canadian. Now, it’s pretty clear to me that Auger Aliassime is in a nice rhythm. I was hesitant to buy into it heading into the last round, but his body of work over the last two weeks says a lot about his recent form. With that in mind, I’m pairing Auger Aliassime to win a set with Musetti to beat Munar.
With Auger Aliassime, I honestly might have played this even if he wasn’t dialed in as both a returner and a baseliner. The reality is that Rublev is weaker than most of the other top players in the world when it comes to the serve. Meanwhile, Auger Aliassime, even when he’s off his game, is capable of putting his head down and serving his way to tiebreakers. So, even if this ends up being a Rublev win, I’d be surprised if it comes in straight sets.
With Musetti, it’s just hard to imagine him letting this match get away. I’m a big fan of Munar’s game, but Musetti has more firepower and variety. He’s also one of the sport’s best thinkers, so he shouldn’t be bothered by the fact that Munar rarely makes bad decisions. Musetti was also a better server than Munar to start the season, but the Italian has been better than ever with the ball on his racquet in New York. He made some pretty big changes to his delivery, which now features less unnecessary movement before the ball toss. So far, everything has been working. And it’s a big part of the reason I wanted to jump on this play, but I couldn’t do it at a moneyline price of -225.
PARLAY: Auger Aliassime To Win A Set & Musetti ML (-145 – 1.5 units)
Alexander Bublik vs. Jannik Sinner
Bublik beat Sinner 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 in Halle earlier in the summer, and he had a 7-5, 2-0 lead on the Italian in that same event two years ago. Sinner retired from that match, which officially gives Bublik two wins in his last three matches against the world No. 1. Both of those wins came on grass, so it’s not ideal to use those to predict success here. But the two grass-court results might mean a little more than Sinner’s straight-set win over Bublik at Roland Garros a few months back. Bublik is a very good clay-court player, but quicker conditions make it much easier on the Kazakh to hold serve. And doing that will be big as we look for Bublik to take a set, as the more opportunities he gives himself to steal a longer set, the better.
I’m not strictly looking at head-to-head history in making this pick. It’s the on-court matchup I like. When Bublik is serving well, he’s going to pick up holds easily. It doesn’t matter who he’s facing. So, as long as he’s hitting his spots, I don’t think Sinner will consistently threaten to break him. I also love that Bublik peppers Sinner with dropshots, as that’s a good way to make the Italian uncomfortable and wear him out as the match progresses. Sinner is essentially flawless as a player, but he still has a long way to go before he figures out the fitness side of things.
Sinner is also coming off a match in which he really struggled with Denis Shapovalov. Sinner was consistently playing close games on his own serve, and he was spraying unforced errors at an alarming rate. Well, if he doesn’t clean up his act in a big way, Bublik could put a scare in him.
Bet: Bublik To Win A Set (+100)
Embed from Getty ImagesNaomi Osaka vs. Coco Gauff
Since seeing the draw, I’ve been hoping for an opportunity to back Osaka against Gauff. I gave out Gauff to win the French Open, as her ability to make matches ugly and win extended rallies still gives her a shot against anyone on the dirt. However, in quicker conditions, it’s hard not to view her as one of the most vulnerable top-tier players in the world right now. Gauff hired a biomechanics coach to help her patch things up with her serve and forehand, but it could take some time for that coaching change to yield big results on hard courts or grass courts. The American is still mixing in double faults and forehand errors at a higher clip than you’d like, meaning she’s not winning enough free points. Meanwhile, Osaka is thriving right now.
Osaka comes into this match after having won eight of her last nine matches, and her 67.6% winning percentage in 2025 is the highest mark she has had in a season in which she has played at least 30 matches since 2019. The 27-year-old has been healthy and focused, and she has looked like a clear contender to win this event since her run to the finals in Montreal.
Osaka’s ability to serve and bully opponents from the back of the court should make her a tough matchup for Gauff. The only thing I’m really worried about here is the crowd. Osaka was visibly bothered by a wild atmosphere when she faced Canadian Victoria Mboko in the finals in Montreal. Well, things will be pretty similar in New York, where the crowd is going to be going insane for Gauff. But I just don’t think Gauff’s game is in a good enough place to ride the energy to a win.
Bet: Osaka ML (+134 – 2 units)
2025 Record: 1037-1027-1 (+35.35 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
Tennis Links
Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast
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