Game: Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons

Date: September 28th at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: CBS

On Sunday, September 28th, what was supposed to be a matchup between two second-year quarterbacks will now be a matchup between a second-year player and a former Falcon. Last week, the Commanders bounced back after a tough Thursday Night Football game at Lambeau Field, earning an emphatic win against the Las Vegas Raiders. It feels like the Commanders are still working through some things on both sides of the ball, but they are getting much closer. Atlanta, on the other hand, is coming off a brutal 30-0 loss in Carolina, where they played poorly in all three phases of the game. This result came as quite the surprise, considering how well they played against the Vikings the week prior. Sunday against the Commanders will be a true test of resilience for this Falcons team, and an important game for them to get back to .500 for the season.

Embed from Getty Images

Betting Overview

This one opened with Washington as 3.5-point favorites, but the line has shifted drastically, with Atlanta now favored between -2 and -2.5. The moneyline saw similar movement, going from -175 to between +110 and +118 for Washington, and from +145 to between -124 and -140 for Atlanta. The total has also dropped notably, moving down from 48.5 to 43.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: This coaching matchup clearly favors the Commanders, as they’ve shown more consistency and guided a new team to a conference championship just last season. The Falcons’ scheme, meanwhile, has been very bland to this point in the season.

DLs vs. OLs: Both of these teams’ defensive lines rank among the worst in the NFL. While the Falcons’ offensive line hasn’t fully lived up to expectations, it remains the better unit on paper, so I’ll give Atlanta a slight edge in this matchup.

QBs: With Jayden Daniels out, this quarterback matchup becomes much closer. Marcus Mariota did his job last week and looks comfortable in the Commanders’ offense. Given his experience and how well he fits the scheme, I still give a slight edge to Washington.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: While Bijan Robinson is clearly the best running back in this game, the Commanders make up for it with stronger play at tight end and linebacker. Robinson’s talent keeps the matchup close, but I’d still give a slight edge to Washington here.

WRs vs. Secondaries: The Falcons’ wide receivers have yet to make a major impact this season, partly because of mediocre quarterback play. That said, Atlanta boasts the stronger secondary, giving them the edge in this matchup.

Betting Trends

These two teams have actually met in each of the past two seasons, with the Commanders winning and covering both matchups, while the over/under split one apiece.

The Washington Commanders enter this game 2-1 ATS, with their only failed cover coming on the road against Green Bay. The over/under has slightly favored the under in Washington games, with two of three contests finishing below the total. Last season, the Commanders were 5-5-1 ATS on the road but just 1-2 as an away favorite. For totals, the over hit in 7 of 11 road games, though the under cashed in two of three as an away favorite.

The Falcons are 1-2 ATS, and the under has hit in all three of their games. Last year Atlanta struggled ATS, finishing 3-6 at home and 0-1 as a home underdog. The under was also more common, hitting in six of nine home games as well as their lone contest as a home underdog.

Final Thoughts

Many bettors appear to be overreacting to the Falcons’ performance last week, which is understandable given how poorly they played. However, this is a completely new game, and Atlanta is at home for this one. This matchup should come down to the fourth quarter and will depend on Penix delivering a stronger game than he has so far. The Commanders may also feel overlooked based on how the media has covered this matchup throughout the week. From a gambling perspective, this is a contest I would avoid entirely.