The World Baseball Classic comes to an end tonight with the championship game between Venezuela and the United States. Based on how the rosters looked, not many people expected Venezuela to be in the finals, as they were the fourth choice on the futures board behind the U.S., Japan, and Dominican Republic. Personally, I thought Venezuela had good value and wrote about them in my WBC Tournament Preview as a good futures bet at +900. We’ll see if that comes through in tonight’s Venezuela vs. USA final.

Mets prospect Nolan McLean gets the ball for the Americans, while longtime MLB starter Eduardo Rodriguez will throw the first pitch for the Venezuelans. It will be a very loud, very raucous atmosphere in Miami for this one in what has been a tremendous display of baseball from start to finish.

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9 a.m. PT.

Venezuela (+220) vs. USA (-280); Total: 8.5 (-115/-105)

Embed from Getty Images

8 p.m. ET (FOX)

The U.S. lost to Japan in the WBC finals back in 2023 when Shohei Ohtani struck out Mike Trout to end the game. The Americans went into this tournament as big favorites, even though the Dominicans put together the best lineup we’ve ever seen and Japan had a mix of Major Leaguers, including Ohtani, and several NPB professionals. 

Offensively, these two teams have put up very similar numbers. The Americans are slashing .272/.393/.461, while the Venezuelans are slashing .271/.346/.458. Team USA has drawn 38 walks to Venezuela’s 24, which accounts for the big on-base percentage difference, but most of that came in one game when the Americans drew 17 walks against Brazil in their first game.

The pitching numbers are nearly identical as well. Team USA is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA over 54 innings with 76 strikeouts against just nine walks. Team Venezuela is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA over 54 innings with 57 strikeouts against 18 walks. The Americans had an easier pool with Great Britain, Mexico, Italy, and Brazil, while Venezuela had the Netherlands, Dominican Republic, Israel, and Nicaragua.

Given how it’s still Spring Training, there are a lot of restrictions on pitcher usage and there are caps on how many pitches guys can throw. That cap will leave the U.S. without high-leverage reliever David Bednar and may also limit the availability of closer Mason Miller, whose controversial called Strike 3 ended the 2-1 win over the Dominicans. Venezuela beat Italy in a 4-2 decision last night and needed six relievers to get through the game. Bullpens are critical in this setting with the pitch caps.

For those who haven’t been following all that closely, here’s the U.S. lineup from Sunday’s semifinal game:

  • Bobby Witt Jr
  • Bryce Harper
  • Aaron Judge
  • Kyle Schwarber
  • Gunnar Henderson
  • Will Smith
  • Roman Anthony
  • Brice Turang
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong

Here’s the lineup from Monday’s semifinal game for the Venezuelans:

  • Ronald Acuna Jr.
  • Maikel Garcia
  • Luis Arraez
  • Eugenio Suarez
  • Ezequiel Tovar
  • Gleyber Torres
  • Wilyer Abreu
  • Willson Contreras
  • Jackson Chourio

That’s a hell of a lot of big league talent.

McLean had a rough go of it in his lone start, allowing three runs on two hits (both homers) in his lone start against Italy. Ryan Yarbrough piggybacked, as that’s the game where Mark DeRosa had no idea that the Americans hadn’t qualified for the quarterfinals yet. Brad Keller followed Yarbrough. McLean is only a veteran of eight starts at the MLB level and he’s facing a star-studded lineup full of MLBers here.

Rodriguez was also bad in his only start, allowing three runs on three hits, two of them homers, but he had to start against the mighty Dominicans. He was taken deep in the first inning by Juan Soto and also allowed a home run to Ketel Marte in the third prior to getting yanked.

Ultimately, the Americans should win, but the -280 price feels a bit steep. McLean does have more upside than Rodriguez given how he’s pitched over the last few seasons and his lone start here. The USA has the deeper bullpen as well, even with Bednar out. But, +220 in an emotionally-charged environment on the Venezuelans feels like the value side.

Pick: Venezuela +220

The post WBC Championship Game: Venezuela vs. USA Prediction and Preview appeared first on VSiN.