Week 1 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:

Here are my Week 1 college football best bets:

Georgia State +35 at Ole Miss

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I get it. This is an uncomfortable bet to make, considering Lane Kiffin has covered four of his last five in the last two seasons laying 30 or more and does not mind running up scores. 

However, those spots never had a conference game on deck, whereas the Rebels travel to Kentucky next week in a big payback spot after the Wildcats came to Oxford and knocked off then No. 6 Ole Miss as 15-point underdogs. 

Austin Simmons takes over at QB from Jaxson Dart. Simmons is talented but very unpolished. Plus, Ole Miss’s defense lost seven starters from last year who are now on NFL rosters.

Dell McGee, after eight years on Kirby Smart’s staff at Georgia, took over the Georgia State program last year. They went just 3-9 but did upset Vanderbilt. McGee has already proven that he can get talent. Only Boise State and Memphis had higher-ranked recruiting classes in the G5 than did Georgia State, per 247 Sports. 

How much does Ole Miss want to show here in the opener with two SEC games (at Kentucky, vs. Arkansas) on deck? Plus, Georgia State has plenty of Power 4 transfers with chips on their shoulders that will look to show out against an SEC opponent. 

Would also look Over 60 here. 

Georgia Southern -125 ML at Fresno State

Fresno State was one of a handful of teams that played last weekend in “Week 0”, but they only mustered 216 yards of offense in a 31-7 defeat at Kansas to spoil Matt Entz’s debut as Bulldogs head coach.

Entz, a two-time FCS National Championship (2019, 2021) winning coach at North Dakota State, was most recently the defensive coordinator at USC last season. He appears to be the perfect hire for this program and fits the San Joaquin Valley culture, but success may not come right away for a team that is in transition. 

Meanwhile, Georgia Southern has achieved some continuity under Clay Helton with three straight bowl appearances but still no Sun Belt East Division titles, as the Eagles have not been able to get by James Madison. Nevertheless, GSU looks to have its most talented roster under Helton. JC French IV returns at QB and has four of five returning starters on the OL to protect up front. 

Last year, Georgia Southern did go to Nevada and win, so they are familiar with the travel out west. Next week, Helton returns to Los Angeles to face USC, where he served as head coach from 2015-2021. However, I do not expect a lookahead here for the Eagles.

Conventional wisdom would tell us that the team that has played a game would have an advantage vs. a team playing its first game, but that has not proven to be true, as the fresher team playing its first game has covered at a little over a 60 percent clip. 

Georgia Southern also has film to look at from last week. Fresno will have to rely on what they saw from last year. 

Virginia Tech +8 at South Carolina

Shane Beamer gets a crack at his alma mater on Sunday night as Virginia Tech, coached by his father Frank for 25 seasons, comes to Columbia. Brent Pry has gone just 16-21 over his first three seasons in Blacksburg and is certainly one of the more notable hot seat candidates coming into the 2025 season. 

Pry remade his coaching staff, including at both coordinator positions. On offense, Philip Montgomery, who spent eight seasons as Tulsa head coach (2015-2022) and was the OC for the explosive Baylor offenses during the Art Briles era, takes over as coordinator and should simplify the offense for Kyron Drones. Defensively, Sam Siefkes takes over as coordinator. Most recently, he spent time on the Vikings staff under Mike Zimmer and on the Cardinals staff under Jonathan Gannon. 

Last year, Virginia Tech was picked sixth in the ACC, and many observers expected a rebound season, but the Hokies were disappointed with a 6-7 mark. This year, the Hokies are picked just 11th out of 17 in the ACC, but this could be where you catch the falling knife, so to speak. 

As for the Gamecocks, expectations are sky high for them this year with the return of QB LaNorris Sellers, who finished last season strongly but will have to carry more of the offensive load without RB Rocket Sanders, who is now a member of the Cleveland Browns. 

South Carolina’s roster attrition is more on the defensive side of the ball, as five players from last year’s unit were drafted into the NFL, including three from the defensive line. Although the Gamecocks have a good program, they are not Georgia, Alabama, LSU, or Texas, where you can just reload to replace this kind of talent in the trenches. 

Best of the Rest:

Northwestern +5 at Tulane

Northwestern is still a bit behind the eight-ball in the Big Ten when it comes to NIL, but at least they have a QB that can throw a forward pass consistently this year with the arrival of Preston Stone from SMU. 

Tulane continued to be one of the best G5 programs in America in Jon Sumrall’s first season and reached the AAC Championship Game. The starting QB has not been announced, but it is expected to be either BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff or Iowa transfer and former Northwestern player Brendan Sullivan. 

This is the first time Tulane is favored over a Power 4 club in this century. While there is talent here, only five combined starters return. 

Old Dominion +14 1H at Indiana

Indiana is off their best season in school history, making the first expanded College Football Playoff before bowing out to Notre Dame. 

It was proven to be dangerous going against Curt Cignetti last year as “Coach Cig” went 10-3 ATS and was not shy about rolling up big scores. 

That’s why it may be more prudent to play the first half with Indiana getting off to a bit of a slow start in the opener, similar to last year’s game vs. FIU. 

Old Dominion is very familiar with Cignetti from his time in the Sun Belt at James Madison, so they should be prepared for the schemes, even though there is a discrepancy in talent. 

The Hoosiers have a new level of expectations now for this program. There could be some jitters or nervous energy early. 

USC -35.5 vs. Missouri State

It is hard to make a case that a five-touchdown favorite has an underdog mentality, but USC certainly has to have that this season as they enter the season unranked for the first time since 2019. 

The Trojans went a disappointing 7-6 last year but should be due for some positive regression as they went just 1-5 in one-score games this year. Unlike the days in the Pac-12, USC is considered just another team in the Big Ten, and no one is really talking about them as a top three or four team in the conference. 

This might be a team with a point to prove early and against a Missouri State team, No. 21 last year in FCS, that transitions into FBS as a member of Conference USA.

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