Week 1: LSU vs Clemson

Week 1 of the College Football season is officially here, and some big matchups are on deck. One of the most anticipated games will be Saturday night in Clemson, South Carolina, in a showdown of the “Death Valleys” as LSU takes on Clemson. This will mark the fifth meeting between the two programs, and the first in the regular season. LSU leads the series dating back to 1958, holding a 3–1 edge, with the most recent clash coming in 2020 when the LSU Tigers won the National Championship in New Orleans. Last season wasn’t quite what LSU hoped for, finishing 9-4, but expectations remain high again in Baton Rouge. Clemson, meanwhile, went 10-3 last year and claimed the ACC, though they’re looking for a stronger finishing stretch this season. As it stands, Clemson is favored by -3.5 (-112), with LSU at +3.5 (-108), and the over/under set at 57.5 (over -110; under -110) per DraftKings.

Weather

This LSU–Clemson matchup is set for 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, August 30, with kickoff expected right around sunset at 7:59 PM ET. With the game being played at night, temperatures should sit in the mid-to-high 70s, which is relatively cool for August in the South, with only a slight chance of thunderstorms later in the evening. Winds are projected to come from the ENE at 5–10 mph. Overall, the weather looks fairly neutral and shouldn’t give either team much of an advantage.

Team Overviews

Heading into the season opener, LSU has two projected offensive starters who transferred in this year, along with four on defense. The Tigers return seven total starters—four on offense and three on defense—most notably quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. Linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. is also back in Baton Rouge, and while he isn’t counted in the “returning production” due to an ACL tear early last year, he should be a major difference-maker. Offensively, the biggest question mark will be replacing left tackle Will Campbell, who was a game-changing force at the position last season and in years prior.

Part of Clemson’s high preseason ranking comes from the wealth of returning talent on their roster. The Tigers bring back 16 total starters, the second most in the Power 4, not including their overall returning production. Clemson returns eight starters on offense and eight on defense, which should make for strong continuity early in the year. In a rare move for them, Clemson has just one transfer starter—defensive end Will Heldt—who is expected to take over at right end.

From a chemistry perspective, Clemson holds the clear edge. Still, both programs boast strong leadership on both sides of the ball, paired with two of the top coaching staffs in the country.

ATS & Over/Under Trends

Last season LSU went 5-8-0 ATS, including 1-3-0 ATS in road games. From an over/under standpoint, the Tigers hit the over in five games while finishing under in eight. On the road, they split evenly with 2 overs and 2 unders.

Clemson, meanwhile, finished 6-8-0 ATS, and at home they posted a 3-4-0 mark. In terms of totals, the Tigers went 7-7-0 overall, but at home they leaned slightly to the over with 4 compared to 3 unders.

Final Thoughts

This LSU vs. Clemson season opener is shaping up to be a must-watch matchup in the 7:30 PM ET primetime slot on Saturday. Both teams feature Heisman contenders who will look to set the tone early. Considering LSU’s struggles in recent openers, their lower level of returning production, and the challenge of playing on the road in a tough environment, there are reasons for concern. Still, with both teams starting fresh and eager to prove themselves, this has all the makings of a statement game to open the season.