Week 15 College Football

The month of December is chaotic in college football. Obviously the Lane Kiffin circus has been dominating the headlines over the last couple days of November, so it seems to be starting a bit early, but we’ve seen head coach announcements, more firings, and we’re only going to get more and more movement as the days peel off the calendar.

Fortunately, the transfer portal doesn’t open until January 2 this year,  but we’ll still see opt-outs for bowl games, whether guys are going to the NFL or are staying healthy to get paid at their next college or university. At least we won’t have to worry about any opt-outs this week, as 18 teams take the field across nine conference championship games. My Week 15 Power Ratings do encompass everything that happened in Week 14, both on and off the field, but the only lined games listed here are for those title games.

I do have to get up on my soapbox here and say that this was a terrible weekend for college football. A five-loss Duke team has a chance at the College Football Playoff. Two conferences, the MAC and Mountain West, had to go multiple tiebreakers deep to determine who would actually play in the conference title game. Ohio and Toledo, who BOTH beat Miami in the regular season, were third in the three-way tiebreaker, but because the Bobcats and Rockets didn’t play each other, it went to a totally misleading tiebreaker. Add in this Kiffin soap opera and both coaches in the American Conference title game having already pretty much agreed to new jobs with the winner of that game going to the CFP and the optics have been terrible.

All we can do is handicap what’s in front of us, but looking long-term, college football needs some new solutions to these problems.

Week 15 College Football Power Ratings

Rank Team PR HFA
1 Ohio State 94 3.5
2 Indiana 90 2.5
3 Notre Dame 88.5 3
4 Texas A&M 88 2
5 Texas Tech 88 3
6 Oregon 87.5 3.5
7 Alabama 86.5 3.5
8 Georgia 86 3
9 Miami (Florida) 84.5 2
10 Vanderbilt 84.5 1.5
11 Texas 84 3.5
12 Mississippi 81.5 3
13 Oklahoma 81 3
14 Utah 80.5 3
15 USC 80 3
16 Michigan 79.5 3
17 Missouri 79.5 3.5
18 Iowa 78.5 3
19 Auburn 78 2
20 BYU 77 2
21 Penn State 77 3.5
22 Pittsburgh 76 2
23 South Florida 76 1.5
24 Tennessee 76 3.5
25 Arizona 75.5 2
26 North Texas 75 2
27 Washington 75 3.5
28 Illinois 74.5 2
29 James Madison 74.5 3
30 Clemson 74 2.5
31 LSU 73.5 3.5
32 Arkansas 73 2
33 Georgia Tech 73 2
34 Mississippi State 73 2
35 Florida 72.5 2
36 Florida State 72.5 2
37 SMU 72 3.5
38 TCU 71.5 3
39 Virginia 71 2
40 Iowa State 70.5 2
41 South Carolina 70 2.5
42 Kentucky 69.5 2
43 Arizona State 69 2
44 Kansas State 69 3.5
45 Louisville 69 3.5
46 Nebraska 69 2
47 Tulane 69 2.5
48 Cincinnati 68.5 1.5
49 North Carolina State 68.5 2
50 Kansas 67.5 2.5
51 Baylor 67 2
52 East Carolina 67 2
53 Houston 67 2
54 Northwestern 67 1.5
55 Wisconsin 67 2
56 Duke 66 3.5
57 San Diego State 65.5 2
58 Toledo 65.5 3
59 Wake Forest 65.5 2
60 Connecticut 64.5 2.5
61 Memphis 64.5 2.5
62 Navy 64.5 2
63 Old Dominion 64.5 1.5
64 Michigan State 64 2
65 UNLV 64 2.5
66 New Mexico 63.5 2
67 Purdue 63.5 1
68 Boise State 63 3.5
69 Minnesota 63 2
70 Rutgers 63 2
71 Virginia Tech 62.5 2
72 North Carolina 62 2
73 West Virginia 62 2
74 UCF 61.5 2
75 UCLA 61.5 2
76 UTSA 61.5 3.5
77 Washington State 61.5 3
78 Maryland 61 2
79 Utah State 60.5 2
80 Army 60 2.5
81 Texas State 60 2
82 Hawai’i 59.5 2
83 Colorado 58 2
84 California 57.5 2
85 Fresno State 57 2
86 Stanford 57 1
87 Temple 57 2
88 Western Michigan 57 2
89 Florida Atlantic 56.5 2
90 Kennesaw State 56.5 1.5
91 Ohio 56.5 3.5
92 Southern Mississippi 56.5 2
93 Boston College 55.5 2
94 Miami (Ohio) 55 2.5
95 Tulsa 54.5 1
96 Western Kentucky 54.5 2.5
97 Arkansas State 53 2
98 South Alabama 53 2
99 Louisiana-Lafayette 52.5 2
100 Marshall 52.5 3
101 Troy 52.5 3
102 Jacksonville State 52 3.5
103 Oklahoma State 52 2
104 Central Michigan 51.5 2
105 San Jose State 51.5 2.5
106 Georgia Southern 51 3.5
107 Oregon State 51 3.5
108 Missouri State 50.5 2
109 Florida International 50 2
110 Liberty 50 3
111 Rice 50 3
112 Wyoming 50 2
113 Air Force 49.5 2
114 Buffalo 49.5 2
115 Nevada 49.5 1
116 Syracuse 49.5 2.5
117 UAB 49.5 2.5
118 Appalachian State 49 2
119 Louisiana Tech 49 2
120 Delaware 48 3
121 Eastern Michigan 47.5 2
122 Coastal Carolina 47 2
123 Colorado State 45.5 2
124 Middle Tennessee 45.5 2
125 Northern Illinois 45.5 1
126 Akron 44.5 2
127 Bowling Green 44.5 2
128 UTEP 44.5 2
129 New Mexico State 44 2.5
130 Louisiana-Monroe 42.5 2
131 Georgia State 42 1
132 Kent State 42 1
133 Ball State 39.5 2.5
134 Sam Houston State 37.5 0.5
135 Charlotte 36.5 1
136 Massachusetts 28.5 1

Here are my Week 15 power ratings adjustments:

Embed from Getty Images

Up: Western Michigan +1.5, Navy +1.5, Iowa +1.5, Arizona +2.5, New Mexico +2, Utah State +1.5, Texas +1.5, North Texas +2.5, Texas Tech +2.5, Vanderbilt +2.5, James Madison +3.5, Louisville +1.5, South Florida +2.5, App State +2, Ohio State +1.5, Miami (FL) +1.5, LSU +2, TCU +1.5, Troy +1.5, Texas State +1.5, Oklahoma State +2.5, Jacksonville State +1.5, Miami (OH) +1, UNLV +2.5

Down: Memphis -3, Utah -2.5, Arizona State -2.5, Colorado State -4, San Diego State -1.5, Boise State -3, Temple -2.5, Florida State -2.5, West Virginia -3, Tennessee -3, Coastal Carolina -4.5, Kentucky -2.5, Duke -2, Rutgers -2.5, Syracuse -2.5, Oklahoma -2.5, Auburn -2, Cincinnati -3, Baylor -2, Sam Houston State -3, Louisiana -2, Iowa State -2.5, SMU -2.5, Virginia -2.5

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Coastal Carolina -4.5: Had this line too short to begin with (as evidenced by the James Madison +3.5 adjustment) and also Tim Beck was fired, though that’s probably addition by subtraction with an excellent up-and-coming coordinator in Jeremiah Johnson as the interim.

Colorado State -4: The Rams had a terrible season. Awful. This is more about setting up their rating for next season than anything moving forward, obviously, as they are not a bowl team.

James Madison +3.5: A bump for now, but Bob Chesney is likely to get hired somewhere, so this is a work in progress.

A bunch of -3 adjustments: A variety of reasons here; bad performances, bad finishes to the season, bad reads by me. Just setting most of these up for bowl season or the offseason.

My Week 15 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date Away Team Home Team Line
12/5 Kennesaw State Jacksonville State +1
  Troy James Madison -25
  North Texas Tulane +3.5
  UNLV Boise State -2.5
       
12/6 BYU Texas Tech (N – Arlington) -11
  Miami (OH) Western Michigan (N – Detroit) -2
  Georgia Alabama (N – Atlanta) -0.5
  Duke Virginia (N – Charlotte) -5
  Indiana Ohio State (N – Indy) -4

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

Kennesaw State +1.5 (-1) vs. Jacksonville State: All of these numbers should be pretty tight at this stage of the game with so many data points. The four Friday games are at home sites and the five Saturday games are neutral. I personally have Kennesaw State slightly favored here, even with HFA for Jacksonville State, so this one’s notable to me.

UNLV +3.5 (+2.5) at Boise State: The weather is a concern here, as UNLV had an awful performance on the road at Wyoming, but did play better at Colorado State and Nevada. Boise State rolled by 25 in the first meeting on the Smurf Turf, so I think that’s playing a factor here as well. Maddux Madsen isn’t playing, though, and he had 4 TD in the first game.

Alabama +2 (-0.5) vs. Georgia: Another one like Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State where I don’t have a huge discrepancy with the line, but do have the other team favored. I’m not sure if Georgia is granted any home-field advantage for the game being in Atlanta, but I’m not giving them any. Alabama has been in this environment a lot.

Virginia -3 (-5) vs. Duke: As the season has gone along, I’ve grown to appreciate this Virginia team. By no means do I think they’re a great team, but I do think they’re a better team than Duke.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.

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