Week 5 of the NFL is upon us, and we’re entering the part of the season where injuries really become a factor and make it difficult to quantify impact to teams when a player or players have to miss a game, but also, in some instances, it creates an opportunity to bet on the team with injuries because of the market overvaluing those players. We have one of those bets coming up shortly. TSI has had a strong start to the NFL season, up 8 units overall on all bets I’ve made, and the absolute error has been fantastic as well, including an absolute error of < 9 in Week 4 on sides and totals. Here are a few early week bets I like, based on the T Shoe Index:

Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.

LA Rams (-5.5) vs. San Francisco, O/U 47

A Thursday night football clash of divisional rivals is where our first bet takes us, as Matt Stafford and LA will host the 49ers. 49ers QB Brock Purdy is questionable in this game, which I think explains why the line is 2.5 points above the TSI projection of LA -3. The interesting thing here is that backup QB Mac Jones has actually outplayed Purdy by virtually every metric this season in filling in for the starter, whose injury remains a question each week. I want to capitalize on this overreaction by grabbing the +5.5 with San Francisco now, because I wouldn’t even make an adjustment to the projection, given how both QBs have played. If Purdy is announced the starter, this line will likely close around 3 or 3.5, I think. This play is unanimous across all metric formulas I use, including points per play, success rate, and yards per play. 
NFL Week 5 Pick: San Francisco 49ers +5.5

Jacksonville vs. Kansas City (+3.5), O/U 45.5

Embed from Getty Images

Kansas City absolutely shredded the Baltimore defense on Sunday, which was great for my Chiefs +3 bet, but I think even better in creating an opportunity to fade them this week. In the NFL, you’re never as great or as awful as you were the week before; that much is tried and true if you’ve been betting the NFL for any amount of time. Jacksonville also had a good performance in beating the 49ers on the road, and now return home to face Patrick Mahomes & co. TSI projects KC -1, and several formulas call for the Jags to win outright because Kansas City has not consistently been as sharp as they looked last week against the Ravens. These teams have basically been even this season in most metrics, so I’m going to take the home dog getting 3 plus the hook here.
NFL Week 5 Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5

For more Week 5 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 5 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.

The post Week 5 NFL Predictions from the T Shoe Index appeared first on VSiN.