Week 7 NFL

Welcome to the Week 7 edition of “TSI vs the Field”, my weekly article where I analyze the NFL slate through the lens of respected predictive models to see where there is the most consensus and the most disagreement, which is valuable in determining which bets to potentially make and which ones to stay away from if the data is mixed. Here are the biggest model agreements and disagreements in Week 7.

Note: TeamRankings is a popular sports resource website, FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.

Note 2: TeamRankings also has the PoolGenius product, a great Survivor and NFL Pick ‘Em resource.

Week 7 NFL Odds Model Alignment:

Minnesota Vikings vs Philadelphia Eagles (-2), O/U 43.5

The defending champion Eagles are 4-2 on the year, but by most accounts, are pretty lucky to have achieved that record given their statistical profile. Minnesota is 3-2 and has already had to play both JJ McCarthy and Carson Wentz at QB due to injury. 

The average model projection on this game is Eagles -0.4, with a variance of just 1.4 points. TeamRankings actually predicts a Vikings win, while the other three models all make the Eagles less than a 1 point favorite. I think the Vikings plus the points is a good bet here, and I actually went ahead and played them on the money line as well. I think it’s a great spot to sell the Eagles here.

NFL Pick: Vikings ML +110

New York Jets vs Carolina Panthers (-1.5), O/U 41.5

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Sound the alarms: the Carolina Panthers are road favorites in an actual NFL game! The model average projection on this game is a pick ‘em, with two models (TSI and Sagarin) calling for about a 1-point Jets win, and FPI and TeamRankings making Carolina about a half-point favorite. 

I just can’t imagine laying points with a team that basically lives in the underdog role, especially on the road. I’m glad the models align, but almost out of pure principle I feel obligated to fade the Panthers – who I’ve bet on as underdogs several times already – in this spot. 

NFL Pick: Jets +1.5

Week 7 NFL Odds Model Disagreement

LA Chargers (-1.5) vs Indianapolis Colts, O/U 48.5

We don’t see this type of preseason expectation vs on-field performance dichotomy as much in the NFL as we do in college, but the Indianapolis Colts are probably exceeding even the most optimistic preseason expectations so far this season. The model average projection on this game is Chargers -0.7, with a variance of 4.6 points, which might as well be 25 points in the NFL. Sagarin and FPI project the Chargers -3.6 and -.5, respectively, while TSI makes it a pick ‘em and TeamRankings favors the Colts by 1. 

At a glance, this line, which is moving towards LA, seems shocking based on what we’ve seen from these teams so far, so in those instances I’d rather align with the market or pass, so I did personally play the Chargers ML but wouldn’t blame you if you passed. 

New England Patriots (-7) vs Tennessee Titans, O/U 42.5

New England is another team that’s probably exceeded preseason expectations and QB Drake Maye has gotten himself involved in some early season MVP talk; however, the models aren’t quite on board with the full touchdown spread here against the Titans, who did just fire their coach so that must be considered also. 

The average projection is Patriots -5.5 with a variance of 4.4 points. TSI aligns with the market at -7, while FPI and TeamRankings make the line 6.5, but Sagarin only makes New England a 2.5 point favorite. Factoring in the coaching situation (could be advantageous for Tennessee or could be a disaster, we don’t know), I’d recommend passing here.

Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Fridays, my Tuesday NFL best bets, and my Thursday college football model comparison.

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