Week 8 College Football

The college football season is moving at a breakneck pace, or at least that’s what it feels like. We also have games on Tuesdays and Wednesdays now, so being ready for the week ahead is under a bit of a time crunch. My Week 8 college football power ratings are a mixed bag this week. I feel like there are some teams that I just can’t figure out, but getting the article out in a timely fashion and evaluating the box scores on Sunday can only allow for so much wiggle room.

To be honest, it’s less about the time crunch and more about the fact that some of these teams are simply all over the place and there isn’t much you can do about it. We also have a couple more head coaches fired now, so that adds another dimension of the unknown, as we’ve seen UCLA take off and Virginia Tech improve, but that isn’t always going to be the case as we know.

I will say that I do feel pretty good with the sides that I like in the games where I am off-market. That isn’t always the case, as sometimes I feel frustrated that I don’t have a team or both teams rated properly, but the games where I have a bit of a discrepancy feel to me like those are sides that I actively want to be on as opposed to just not having good valuations. Hopefully it all works out the way it’s supposed to.

Before I get into the adjustments and the games that I like, let’s look at my 1 through 136.

Week 8 College Football Power Ratings

Rank Team PR HFA
1 Ohio State 92.5 3.5
2 Oregon 90.5 3.5
3 Alabama 89.5 3.5
4 Indiana 88.5 2.5
5 Georgia 86.5 3
6 Miami (Florida) 86.5 2
7 Texas A&M 85.5 2
8 Notre Dame 85 3
9 Texas 85 3.5
10 Texas Tech 85 3
11 Missouri 83 3.5
12 Utah 83 3
13 USC 82.5 3
14 Mississippi 81.5 3
15 LSU 80.5 3.5
16 Michigan 80.5 3
17 Oklahoma 80.5 3
18 Tennessee 80.5 3.5
19 Vanderbilt 79.5 1.5
20 Arizona State 78.5 2
21 Auburn 78 2
22 BYU 77.5 2
23 Penn State 77.5 3.5
24 Florida 77 2
25 Clemson 76.5 2.5
26 Washington 76.5 3.5
27 Nebraska 76 2
28 Iowa 75.5 3
29 Florida State 75 2
30 Cincinnati 74 1.5
31 Georgia Tech 74 2
32 South Carolina 74 2.5
33 TCU 74 3
34 Louisville 73.5 3.5
35 Mississippi State 73 2
36 Arizona 72.5 2
37 Arkansas 72.5 2
38 Illinois 72.5 2
39 Iowa State 72 2
40 Baylor 71.5 2
41 Memphis 71.5 2.5
42 Pittsburgh 71.5 2
43 SMU 71.5 3.5
44 Duke 70.5 3.5
45 Virginia 70.5 2
46 South Florida 70 1.5
47 Minnesota 69.5 2
48 Boise State 69 3.5
49 Colorado 69 2
50 Kansas 69 2.5
51 Kansas State 69 3.5
52 Rutgers 68.5 2
53 Houston 68 2
54 Kentucky 68 2
55 Tulane 68 2.5
56 Maryland 67 2
57 Navy 66 2
58 Wisconsin 66 2
59 James Madison 65.5 3
60 North Carolina State 65.5 2
61 UCF 65.5 2
62 North Texas 65 2
63 East Carolina 64 2
64 Michigan State 64 2
65 Old Dominion 64 1.5
66 Wake Forest 64 2
67 Northwestern 63.5 1.5
68 Purdue 63.5 1
69 UCLA 63.5 2
70 Virginia Tech 63.5 2
71 California 63 2
72 Toledo 62.5 3
73 UNLV 61.5 2.5
74 Hawai’i 60.5 2
75 Texas State 60.5 2
76 Utah State 60.5 2
77 Boston College 60 2
78 Southern Mississippi 60 2
79 Syracuse 60 2.5
80 San Diego State 58.5 2
81 West Virginia 58.5 2
82 Miami (Ohio) 58 2.5
83 UTSA 58 3.5
84 Army 57.5 2.5
85 New Mexico 57.5 2
86 Fresno State 57 2
87 Air Force 56.5 2
88 Connecticut 56.5 2.5
89 Ohio 56.5 3.5
90 North Carolina 55.5 2
91 San Jose State 55.5 2.5
92 Temple 55.5 2
93 Western Kentucky 55.5 2.5
94 Louisiana Tech 54.5 2
95 Troy 54.5 3
96 Stanford 54 1
97 Delaware 53.5 3
98 Georgia Southern 53.5 3.5
99 South Alabama 53.5 2
100 Wyoming 53.5 2
101 Oregon State 52.5 3.5
102 Tulsa 52.5 1
103 Bowling Green 52 2
104 Florida Atlantic 52 2
105 Jacksonville State 52 3.5
106 Rice 52 3
107 Buffalo 51.5 2
108 Central Michigan 51.5 2
109 Louisiana-Lafayette 51.5 2
110 Washington State 51.5 3
111 Colorado State 51 2
112 Florida International 51 2
113 Marshall 50.5 3
114 Oklahoma State 50.5 2
115 Western Michigan 50.5 2
116 Liberty 50 3
117 Appalachian State 49.5 2
118 Arkansas State 49.5 2
119 Kennesaw State 49.5 1.5
120 Northern Illinois 49.5 1
121 Eastern Michigan 47.5 2
122 UAB 47.5 2.5
123 Nevada 47 1
124 Louisiana-Monroe 46.5 2
125 Georgia State 45.5 1
126 Coastal Carolina 45 2
127 UTEP 45 2
128 Missouri State 44.5 2
129 Sam Houston State 44.5 0.5
130 Charlotte 43.5 1
131 Akron 42.5 2
132 New Mexico State 42.5 2.5
133 Middle Tennessee 41.5 2
134 Ball State 39.5 2.5
135 Kent State 39 1
136 Massachusetts 33.5 1

Here are my Week 8 power ratings adjustments:

Up: Liberty +2, Kennesaw State +2.5, Southern Miss +2, Sam Houston +1.5, East Carolina +1, Washington +2, Temple +2, UCF +1, Louisiana +2.5, Marshall +2.5, Northwestern +1.5, Clemson +1.5, Pitt +1.5, UCLA +5, Eastern Michigan +1, Texas Tech +1, Colorado +1, Utah +2.5, New Mexico +1, USC +1.5, Arizona +1.5, Troy +3, Arkansas +1.5, Illinois +1.5, Stanford +1, UTSA +2, Kansas State +1.5, Notre Dame +2.5, Indiana +3, Texas +1.5, UNLV +1.5, Purdue +2.5, Florida Atlantic +2, Hawaii +2

Down: UTEP -5, Louisiana Tech -2, Jacksonville State -1.5, Fresno State -3, Rutgers -1.5, UMass -3, James Madison -1.5, Old Dominion -1.5, Georgia State -2.5, Penn State -5.5, Boston College -2.5, Florida State -3.5, Wisconsin -1.5, Michigan State -2.5, UL Monroe -3, Bowling Green -4, Northern Illinois -1.5, Kansas -2.5, Mississippi -1.5, Iowa State -2, Arizona State -2.5, Texas State -4, Tennessee -2, LSU -1, SMU -1, TCU -4.5, NC State -2.5, Air Force -1.5, Minnesota -1.5, Auburn -1.5, Oklahoma -1.5

Some notes on the biggest movers:

UCLA +5: What a run for Tim Skipper. I really don’t think he’s under consideration for the job, but UCLA looks like a totally different team and kudos to them. That was a miserable scheduling spot against Michigan State and they rolled.

Indiana +3: I guess this year’s version of Indiana is legit. Last year’s had a lot of unanswered questions and got beaten by the two good teams they played. This win over Oregon was extremely impressive.

Troy +3: Market adjustment here, as it seems life without Goose Crowder isn’t as bad as originally thought.

Penn State -5.5: I feel vindicated and validated that Drew Allar isn’t very good and that James Franklin has now been fired. Allar is out for the season, so 5.5 might not even be enough, but this is a program in shambles now.

UTEP -5: Scotty Walden took a really tough job and there was a lot of hope that he would find a way to succeed. I don’t think he’s going to. This should be a FCS program.

TCU -4.5: Market correction. I like Josh Hoover, but it seems like the rest of the team may not be very good.

Bowling Green -4: Market correction here, too. While I had Bowling Green as a massive overlay against Toledo, that box score does not point towards a Falcons win. They got very, very lucky.

Texas State -4: GJ Kinne just doesn’t have the roster here for one reason or another. I also wonder if he’s halfway out the door for another gig.

Florida State -3.5: Turns out maybe we were all premature in thinking that the Seminoles were back. Also, what the hell happened in that Alabama game? Where has that team been?

UL Monroe -3: I really like Bryant Vincent. I don’t really like Bryant Vincent’s team.

UMass -3: Kent State hadn’t beaten a FBS team since November 26, 2022. Kent State beat UMass 42-6. I’m not sure I could rate this team lower than where I have them now.

Fresno State -3: Woof. What a horrible effort from the Bulldogs against Colorado State. They did win the box score, but had a bunch of turnovers and couldn’t stop a nosebleed on the short fields the Rams had. Market correction here, too.

My Week 8 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date Away Team Home Team Line
10/14 New Mexico State Liberty -10.5
  Arkansas State South Alabama -6
  FIU Western Kentucky -7
       
10/15 Delaware Jacksonville State -2
  UTEP Sam Houston State PK
       
10/16 Tulsa East Carolina -13.5
       
10/17 Louisville Miami (FL) -15
  Nebraska Minnesota +4.5
  San Jose State Utah State -7
  North Carolina Cal -9.5
       
10/18 Buffalo UMass +17
  Coastal Carolina App State -6.5
  West Virginia UCF -9
  Eastern Michigan Miami (OH) -13
  Florida Atlantic South Florida -19.5
  Northern Illinois Ohio -10.5
  Old Dominion James Madison -4.5
  Temple Charlotte +11
  Georgia State Georgia Southern -11.5
  Oklahoma South Carolina +4
  Kent State Toledo -26.5
  UConn Boston College -5.5
  SMU Clemson -7.5
  Georgia Tech Duke PK
  Michigan State Indiana -27
  Texas State Marshall +7
  Troy UL Monroe +6
  Pitt Syracuse +9
  Akron Ball State +0.5
  Central Michigan Bowling Green -2.5
  Purdue Northwestern -1.5
  LSU Vanderbilt -0.5
  Hawaii Colorado State +7.5
  UNLV Boise State -11
  Nevada New Mexico -12.5
  Maryland UCLA +1.5
  Washington Michigan -7
  Mississippi State Florida -6
  UTSA North Texas -9
  Missouri Auburn +3
  Arizona Houston +2.5
  Baylor TCU -5.5
  Southern Miss Louisiana +6.5
  Army Tulane -13
  Mississippi Georgia -8
  Texas A&M  Arkansas +11
  Penn State Iowa -1
  Cincinnati Oklahoma State +21.5
  Ohio State Wisconsin +24.5
  Utah BYU +3.5
  Memphis UAB +21.5
  Wyoming Air Force -5
  Texas Tech Arizona State (w/ Leavitt) +4.5
  Texas Kentucky +15.5
  Washington State Virginia -21
  Oregon Rutgers +20
  USC Notre Dame -5.5
  Tennessee Alabama -12.5
  Florida State Stanford +20

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

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Coastal Carolina +11.5 (+6.5) at App State: I’ve hated the Chanticleers all season long and now I’m at a point where I have value in backing them. That’s pretty telling.

Georgia Southern -6.5 (-11.5) vs. Georgia State: The annual “Modern Day Hate” game between Georgia Southern and Georgia State is this week. I have not been a Georgia Southern fan this season either, but now I have value on them. That’s pretty telling.

Texas State -3 (-7) at Marshall: Maybe I’m missing something here, but I made adjustments to both teams and I still have clear value on Texas State.

Central Michigan +6 (+2.5) at Bowling Green: I adjusted Bowling Green down a good bit and now I’m off on this game. I guess maybe I had Toledo rated too low, but they haven’t really impressed me. I may not play this one despite the line value.

Hawaii +1 (-7.5) at Colorado State: I know the Rainbow Warriors are coming to the mainland, but I do not understand this line at all whatsoever. I don’t think Colorado State is any good at all. Hawaii already has five wins and Micah Alejado is improving.

Missouri +2.5 (-3) at Auburn: I’m not sure why Auburn is still getting any market respect. I simply don’t think this team is good at all.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.

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