Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 7 Best Bets

Here are my NFL Week 7 best bets:

New Orleans +5 at Chicago

The Bears are off consecutive road underdog victories (at Las Vegas, at Washington), in come-from-behind fashion, by the exact same score of 25-24. Chicago has won three straight games after an 0-2 start. Now, the Bears, who were home underdogs in their first two games, are home favorites for the first time against a 1-5 New Orleans team that has been competitive in all games except for Week 3 at Seattle.

In the Bears’ three-game winning streak, they are +10 in turnover margin, which is unsustainable. Chicago’s defense has obviously been excellent at forcing turnovers, but they have difficulty stopping the run and rank 31st out of 32 teams, giving up 156.4 yards per game. They struggle particularly against zone-blocking schemes like what New Orleans runs. 

Chicago is also on short rest from Monday night and are 0-4 in those spots since Caleb Williams has been the starting quarterback. 

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Houston +3.5 (-120) at Seattle

After an 0-3 start, Houston has won two in a row, albeit vs. Tennessee and at a Baltimore club decimated by injuries. 

Perhaps the bye week will assist the Texans in getting its offense going as it has been slow out of the gates under new OC Nick Caley.

However, the defense for Houston has been one of the better ones in the league thus far, leading the NFL in scoring defense (12.2 ppg) and are fourth in total defense (265.8 ypg). 

Seattle has struggled to run the ball, but Sam Darnold has maintained his stellar performance from last year in Minnesota, currently ranking third in passing yards, passer rating, and QBR. This week will be a more difficult test.

The Seahawks had to hang on to win at Arizona three weeks ago, lost a heartbreaker at home against Tampa, and then faced Jacksonville on the road with the Jags on a short week after beating the Chiefs on Monday night. 

Many of the power ratings guys love Seattle (1st in DVOA), and yet they are only laying a juiced 3 at home to a team under .500? 

BEST OF THE REST

Las Vegas Raiders/Kansas City Chiefs Under 45.5
Denver Broncos -1/New York Jets +7.5 (6-point teaser)
Los Angeles Chargers (-125 ML) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Detroit Lions -5.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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