WNBA Picks

The W is back Friday night with a doubleheader, which will feature the Atlanta Dream vs. the Chicago Sky and the Las Vegas Aces vs the Dallas Wings. This will be the appetizer before the Saturday slate, which includes the expected return of Caitlin Clark to the Fever vs. the undefeated New York Liberty. TSI is on a 10-3 run in the last 13 bets, so let’s look to keep the momentum rolling Friday night. I’m also going to include early Saturday projections since I’ll be traveling Saturday morning and won’t be able to get an article out in time.

Here are Friday’s and Saturday’s projections from the T Shoe Index:

Friday

Atlanta Dream (-12.5) vs. Chicago Sky, O/U 159.5

Atlanta pounded Indiana in its last outing, while Chicago just continues to get its doors blown off by anyone with a pulse, which explains why the market has moved from 8.5 to 12.5 on this game, while the total has dipped from 160.5 to 159.5. TSI projects Atlanta -13 with a total of 159, with supplemental formulas averaging 13.5 on the spread and 161.5 on the total. The Atlanta defense has been stifling at home, holding opponents 7 points below their season averages, which is a main reason I’m not betting an Over in this game. The spread has moved too much to back Atlanta pregame at this point, but I definitely lean Atlanta here.

WNBA Pick: Lean Atlanta Dream -12.5

Las Vegas Aces (-6) vs. Dallas Wings, O/U 170.5

While Paige Bueckers absolutely dazzled in her return from a concussion earlier this week, posting a 35-point performance, the Las Vegas Aces got hit with the injury bug in the worst way, as MVP A’Ja Wilson left the game with a head injury and is doubtful for tonight. Her injury has moved the line from Aces -10.5 to Aces -5, before we saw some buyback to 6. I actually have Wilson worth about 6.5 points to the spread, so accounting for that, TSI projects Vegas -8.5 with a total of 176.5. We’ve seen the total move from 166.5 to 170.5, so I don’t generally like to follow that much steam, but the home/away split formula calls for this game to land in the high 170s, so I’m going to bend my own rule here and bet the Over.

WNBA Pick: Over 170.5 (Play to 171.5)

Saturday TSI Projections

Minnesota Lynx -1 vs. LA Sparks, 164.5
New York Liberty -9.5. vs Indiana Fever, 166.5
Seattle Storm -3 vs. Golden State Valkyries, 154

For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.

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