WNBA Picks

It’s been a wild week in the WNBA, spawning plenty of discourse about how much the league should or shouldn’t be protecting Caitlin Clark after skirmishes broke out in the Fever’s win over the Connecticut Sun earlier this week. Sophie Cunningham was fined for her involvement in one incident after hitting Jacy Sheldon with a WWE-style takedown on a fast break. The Fever is back in action on Thursday night against the scrappy Golden State Valkyries, and the defending champion Liberty will host the Phoenix Mercury. 

Here are the T Shoe Index projections for both games:

New York Liberty (-10.5) vs. Phoenix Mercury, O/U 163

New York has just one loss on the season, coming recently to Clark and the Fever, but otherwise, they’ve been an absolute juggernaut and looked the part of a team ready to defend its title. Phoenix played a pesky game against Connecticut just last night, so fatigue certainly could creep in trying to keep up with the potent Liberty offense. However, the market has moved a point towards Phoenix and 3 points towards the Under, while TSI projects Liberty -12 with a total of 157.5. The Under is 7-3-1 in these teams’ games in their respective home/away roles. If the line keeps moving towards Phoenix, I’ll jump in on New York at anything under 10, but for now I’m content taking the Under at 163 or better – shop around, as there are some 163.5s still littered out there.
WNBA Pick: Under 163 (Play to 162)

Indiana Fever (-12) vs. Golden State Valkyries, O/U 164.5

Fresh off their dust-up with Connecticut, Indiana will take on a Valkyries team that’s overachieving relative to preseason expectations, and is missing a chunk of its rotation due to players’ Euro Cup responsibilities overseas. Indiana has been red-hot since Clark returned from her quad injury, but Golden State has still remained a formidable team and laid a nice beatdown on the Seattle Storm. The line has moved a point towards Indiana and 4 points towards the Under, while TSI projects Fever -8 with a total of 157. I think the market is a little too Fever happy right now, but admittedly, both teams are hard to project right now with so many players missing time and muddying the data, I’m going to back off an official play but would lean Valkyries and Under.
WNBA Pick: Lean Valkyries +12, Under 164.5

For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.

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