WNBA Picks

We’ve got four games on the WNBA slate this evening, including Paige Buckers and the Dallas Wings taking on Allisha Gray and the Atlanta Dream, Angel Reese and the Chicago Sky vs Kelsey Plum and the LA Sparks, Kiki Iriafen and the Washington Mystics hosting a questionable Napheesa Collier and the Minnesota Lynx, and the finale will be Caitlin Clark and the Fever visiting Skylar Diggins and the Seattle Storm. Plenty of games, plenty of action to be had, so let’s get to today’s projections from the T Shoe Index:

Dallas Wings vs. Atlanta Dream (-8), O/U 169.5

Atlanta is 10-4 and has won four of its last five games coming into tonight, while Dallas is 3-12, but two of those wins have come in the last week. Dijonai Carrington is doubtful for Dallas in this game. The market is buying the Paige Bueckers ascension, moving this line from 10.5 to 8.5, while the over has been appetizing as well, moving the O/U from 165.5 to 169.5. TSI projects Atlanta -13.5 with a total of 173.5, and since Dallas has seemingly started to turn a corner, I’m going to hold off on betting against them, but I do like the Over. Atlanta has allowed 10 more points per game on the road than at home, while also scoring 3 more per game on the road, leading to a 6-1 O/U record on the road.
WNBA Pick: Over 169.5 (Play to 170.5)

Chicago Sky vs. LA Sparks (-5.5), O/U 167.5

I don’t know what oddsmakers were doing with this game initially, as this game opened with Chicago -1.5 at some recreational books, which was so off of my projection that I literally had someone message me and ask if my projection was wrong or if there was some kind of injury news he wasn’t sure of. Sure enough, by this morning, the line is now LA -5.5 and the total has risen from 164.5 to 167.5. TSI projects Sparks -10 with a total of 169.5. Chicago is awful and has lost 4 of its last 5 (only win was Connecticut) by an average of 14.8 ppg. They’ve also been 8 (!!) points better on the road than at home this year, which is nuts, but statistically correct. 
WNBA Pick: LA Sparks -5.5 (Play to -7)

Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx (-9.5), O/U 157.5

The biggest question in this game is whether Lynx MVP candidate and DPOY, Napheesa Collier, will play after missing the last game. Based on the line, I’d say she’s expected to play, but that could always change in a minute. The line opened Lynx -6, a hedge perhaps on Collier’s status, and has moved to 9.5, while the total has dropped from 160.5 to 157. TSI projects Lynx -9.5 with a total of 156.5 – the projection would drop to -3 if Collier were to miss. The lines are too tight to make a play here, but I’d lean Under.
WNBA Pick: Lean Under 157.5

Seattle Storm (-3.5) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 166

Another big line swing, this game opened at recreational books with Indiana as a 1.5-point favorite; however, the overnight movement has seen this swing to Seattle -3.5 and the total ascend from 163.5 to 166. TSI projects Storm -6 with a total of 158, but as I’ve mentioned with the Fever recently, I don’t love betting their Unders just yet because the lineups without Clark were so abysmal offensively, it’s kind of skewed the numbers a bit for totals. The line has moved too much and is too close to my projection for an official play on Seattle, but they’d be my lean.
WNBA Pick: Lean Seattle Storm -3.5

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