WNBA Picks

Last night was such a weird night in the WNBA. All four favorites lost outright, and the games went 25 points over or under the posted total, on average. Hopefully, tonight presents some semblance of normalcy, and the projections will be useful again. Tonight, the Golden State Valkyries host the New York Liberty, and the Las Vegas Aces host the Connecticut Sun. 

Here are the T Shoe Index projections for Wednesday night:

Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Liberty (-7.5), O/U 161.5

Golden State has been an absolute ATS juggernaut, particularly as an underdog this season. They’re catching New York at a good time, because star Jonquel Jones is for sure out for this game and Sabrina Ionescu is questionable with a neck issue. The market has moved from 9.5 to 7.5 on the spread and 163.5 to 161.5 on the total. TSI projects Liberty -6 (with Ionescu) with a total of 166. Now, I wouldn’t feel great about betting a Valks’ Over, as they are 8-5 to the Under this year. However, NY is 5-1 to the Over on the road this season. I do love Golden State on the spread here, especially with the Ionescu uncertainty, because the line will likely move another 2-3 points if she’s announced out.
WNBA Pick: Golden State Valkyries +7.5 (play to +6.5)

Las Vegas Aces (-19) vs. Connecticut Sun, O/U 159.5

Vegas has been underwhelming to say the least so far this season, but they are coming off a huge win against Caitlin Clark and the Fever, while Connecticut is basically in a freefall and sits at just 2-12. The market has noticed and has moved the line from 15.5 to 19, and the total has stayed put at 159.5. TSI projects Aces -13.5 with a total of 155.5. The problem here is that it’s starting to feel like Connecticut is quitting on the season (yes, even this early). They’re not very talented, for sure, but they are just getting blown out left and right and know the franchise is trying to relocate out of Connecticut after this season. The numbers are the numbers, but I can’t in good conscience take any part in backing them right now. I also hesitate to take the Under because they’re liable to give up 100 points to this Aces team, so I’m staying away altogether.
WNBA Bet: Stay away

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