For as much talk about potential chalk on the men’s side as there was, the women’s bracket has been about as chalky as it gets. All four number one seeds have advanced to the Final Four, with the heavy favorite, UConn, taking on Dawn Staley’s South Carolina squad that has come alive in the tournament after a lopsided loss to Texas in the SEC championship game that was a de facto home game for the Gamecocks. On the other side, that same Texas team, who has been obliterating everyone in its path, takes on UCLA, who had a monster comeback win against Duke in the Elite Eight to punch its ticket to Phoenix. Let’s get to the TSI projections for these games, and check back tomorrow for the men’s Final Four projections and bets from the T Shoe Index.

UConn (-6.5) vs South Carolina, O/U 135.5

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Geno Auriemma’s Huskies come into this game having beaten tournament opponents by an average of 32.5 points per game. They’re undefeated this season after winning the national title last April, and this game is a championship rematch of that 2025 title game. South Carolina has been dominant in their own right, winning tournament games by an average of 40 points per game after that humbling loss to Texas in the SEC championship. I was in Greenville and saw South Carolina up close and personal and was not impressed by them at all in that conference tournament; however, it appears Dawn Staley has her team peaking at the exact right time, while UConn at least looks mortal compared to what they’ve looked like most of the season. These are arguably the two best coaches in the sport and either of them having a masterpiece of a gameplan is certainly on the table, but I think the spread is more reflective of the body of work than it is these teams’ most recent forms. TSI projects U Conn -2 with a total of 139, indicating that South Carolina has certainly been better recently than they have all season and that they’ve been playing higher-scoring games than usual, going Over the total in four of their last five games. I’m backing the Gamecocks here +6.5.
Bet: South Carolina +6.5

Texas (-2.5) vs UCLA, O/U 132.5

Speaking of recent dominance, how about the Texas Longhorns? When I saw them play last year in the SEC tournament with virtually the same squad, I was highly unimpressed with their offensive balance. If superstar Madison Booker didn’t score for them, offense was hard to come by. That’s different this year, and this team is reaping the benefits of that. After beating South Carolina by 17 in the SEC title game, they’ve beaten tournament opponents by 35.5 points per game, including a 36-point beatdown of #6 power rated Michigan. They’ll take on the 6’8” Lauren Betts and her UCLA squad who had been a buzzsaw as well until they found themselves down at halftime to Duke in the Elite Eight. A dominant second half propelled them to a 12-point win and a date with the Longhorns, but I think the recent form of these teams indicates this line is a little short. TSI projects Texas -4 with a total of 139, but looking at just the last 3 games’ worth of data, Texas has been 16 points better. I think a double-digit Longhorns win is on the table, and I’m laying the points with them as well as taking the Over.
Bet: Texas -2.5
Bet: Over 132.5

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