March Madness is upon us, and the women’s college basketball tournament features four absolute powerhouses as the projected #1 seeds, so I thought I’d take a look at each of those teams and provide a quick glimpse of what got them here and what we can expect from them en route to crowning a national champion. Further, I wanted to use my T Shoe Index to point out some potential non-number-one seeds who can make a push for a Final Four, or at the very least, a deep postseason run. The projected #1 seeds, per NCAA.com, are U Conn, South Carolina, UCLA and Texas. 

U Conn

Unsurprisingly, the projected top overall seed after going 34-0 and thrashing virtually everyone in their path. They’re #1 in the NET rankings, going 9-0 in Quad 1 games and 5-0 in Quad 2 games, while boasting the number 4 offensive rating in the country to pair with the top defensive rating in the country, per Her Hoop Stats. TSI also has the Huskies as the top-rated defense, holding opponents to 18 points below their season averages, while scoring 24 points above opponents’ defensive averages, good for second in TSI offensive ratings. U Conn is led by forward Sarah Strong, averaging 18.5 points per game to go along with 7.6 rebounds and 4.1 assists; not to mention her backcourt help in Azzi Fudd, a sniper shooting 44% from 3 this season while averaging 17.7 points per game. Basically, this team is a juggernaut, and it’s going to take an A+ game from an opponent to take down Geno Auriemma’s squad.
Championship Odds: -270

UCLA 

Perhaps the least heralded of the #1 seeds is UCLA, but this Bruins team can play. UCLA is #2 in NET rankings, going 18-1 in Quad 1 games and 2-0 in Quad 2 games this season, while having the highest-rated offensive rating in the country and the #4 defense, per HHS. TSI is a little lower than those metrics, though, formulating UCLA with the #7 offense and #2 defense while playing the most difficult schedule of all of the #1 seeds. UCLA is bolstered by its dominant big inside, Lauren Betts, who averages 16.4 points per game to go along with 8.6 rebounds and 3.2 assists. The Bruins have three other players averaging double figures this season, so while Betts is the premier name, this is a balanced attack that can shoot the lights out, as all three of those players shoot 38% or better from 3, including Gianna Kneepkens who shoots 44% from behind the arc. Play man-to-man and get beat inside. Play zone and get shot out of the gym. Tough call for opposing coaches against this team. 
Championship Odds: +550

Texas

Perhaps the team poised to take the biggest sigh of relief upon bracket reveal is the Texas Longhorns, who, thanks to their dominant win vs South Carolina in the SEC championship game, will avoid U Conn until the championship, according to the NCAA.com projected bracket. Texas ranks #4 in the NET, going 14-3 in Quad 1 and 5-0 in Quad 2 games. Her Hoops Stats ranks Texas as the #5 offense and the #2 defense, while TSI has them #6 and #3, respectively, as they score 19.4 points per game above opponents’ defensive averages and hold opponents to 14.8 points per game below their season averages. The Longhorns are led again by former SEC player of the year, Madison Booker, who averages just under 19 points per game. They only have two other scorers who average double figures, in Jordan Lee and Kyla Oldacre, and no one who averages more than Booker’s 6.5 rebounds per game, so a matchup against UCLA and Lauren Betts in the semifinals could be an interesting challenge for Texas inside. 
Championship Odds: +700

South Carolina

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I was at the SEC tournament in Greenville, SC, last weekend, so I saw firsthand both the ceiling and deficiencies of this Gamecocks team. They rank #3 in the NET rankings, going 12-3 in Quad 1 games and 7-0 in Quad 2 games. HHS ranks them #2 on offense (tied with LSU) and #3 on defense, while TSI ranks them #5 on offense and #4 on defense. Those numbers are a little surprising to me based on what I saw in person from Dawn Staley’s squad, as they don’t have a ton of shooting (Raven Johnson’s 3 point improvement year-over-year is incredible), and their bigs are tall and mobile but not particularly skilled compared to the all-world bigs they’ve had in the past with A’ja Wilson and Aaliyah Boston. I thought Maddy McDaniel provided a great spark off the bench at the point guard position. Joyce Edwards leads the team in scoring at 19.6 points per game, but to me, she’s a very good athlete who runs the floor well and scores opportunistically but is not a primary creator of her own points. Them losing in the SEC championship to Texas sets them up for a potential semifinal vs. U Conn, and I don’t think they have the firepower to contend with that team. 
Championship Odds: +800

Who Could Make a Run?

Women’s basketball is much more top-heavy than men’s, realistically, so there’s just not going to be a huge “sleeper” team that comes out of nowhere. So, who outside the top four can realistically push one of the big dogs and maybe sneak into the Final Four? Two teams jump out to me as feasibly capable: LSU and Michigan. These teams are #5 and #6, respectively, in the NET rankings, while both having winning records vs Quad 1 teams and undefeated vs Quad 2. HHS also ranks them both #5 and #6, while TSI has LSU as the second-best team in the country this season, while Michigan is TSI #6. The reason LSU is so high in TSI is their explosive offense. The Tigers score a ridiculous 27.3 points per game more than their opponents allow on average, yet are still top 10 in TSI defensive rating. They also have 1. a coach with championship pedigree in Kim Mulkey and 2. What I call “the hooper factor”. They have three players – MiLaysia Fulwiley, Flau’jae Johnson and Mikaylah Williams – who can just flat out hoop. Their footwork, their imagination and creativity, and they just “have that dog in them.” Watch out for the Tigers. 
Championship Odds: LSU +1400, Michigan +8000

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