Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans 

Date: September 15th at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ABC

For the first of two Monday Night Football games, we get an NFC vs. AFC matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Houston Texans. The Bucs opened the season with a solid win, though they didn’t seem to be firing on all cylinders on either side of the ball. The star of that victory was rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka, who scored two touchdowns in his debut. The Texans, meanwhile, had a rough Week 1, as their offense looked stuck in the mud and they fell to the LA Rams 14-9. Houston still put up a fight, but they will need better production from their receiving corps to have a chance in this one against the Bucs.

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Betting Overview

When this game opened, the Texans were 1.5-point favorites, and the line has since moved further in Houston’s favor to -2.5. The same applies to the moneyline, which opened at +102 for Tampa but has shifted to between +120 and +128, while Houston moved from -122 to a range of -130 to -150 depending on the sportsbook. Many are anticipating a low-scoring game, as the total dropped significantly from the opening 46.5 down to 42.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: Though the offense has looked subpar, the overall coaching edge goes to DeMeco Ryans and the Houston Texans. A defensive-minded coach, he has completely revamped that unit, and he’s not only reached the playoffs the past two seasons but also won a game in each of those postseason runs.

DLs vs. OLs: Even without the great Tristan Wirfs, the Bucs are stronger overall on both lines. The offensive line held up well against the Atlanta Falcons last week, though they’ll look to create stronger run blocks in this one. It’s worth noting the Texans’ edge rushers, who could cause Baker some problems.

QBs: The quarterback matchup here is tough to call, but based on last season, Baker Mayfield gets the slight edge. Mayfield is also more experienced than C.J. Stroud and adds a bigger element to the run game.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: With Cade Stover’s injury last week and Joe Mixon still out, the Buccaneers hold the edge here. Their off-ball linebackers are healthy, the backfield of Bucky Irving and Rachaad White is strong, and tight end Cade Otton is fully available.

WRs vs. Secondaries: The duel between Houston’s secondary and Tampa Bay’s receivers might be the game’s best matchup. The Texans feature one of the league’s top defensive backfields, while the Bucs boast a loaded wideout group. Overall, the edge goes to Houston, and I expect Nico Collins to deliver a strong bounce-back game.

Betting Trends from 2024

Tampa Bay carried strong ATS trends into this season. They went 5-3 on the road last year, 3-1 as a road underdog, and 3-2 in non-conference games. The over also cashed often—6 of 8 on the road, 3 of 4 as a road dog, and 3 of 5 in non-conference matchups.

Houston was steadier but less dominant. The Texans covered 3 of 5 non-conference games, 4-4-1 at home, and 2-3-1 as a home favorite. Totals leaned under 4 of 5 in non-conference, 7 of 9 at home, and 5 of 6 when favored at NRG Stadium.

Final Thoughts

This Monday Night clash should be a close, defense-driven battle. Tampa Bay’s offensive line held up well a week ago, but Houston’s pass rush—led by Will Anderson Jr.—could swing the outcome and be the deciding factor late.