Game: NC State Wolfpack at Duke Blue Devils

Date: September 20th at 4:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN 2

The NC State Wolfpack, after two extra days of rest, find themselves on the road again—luckily for them, it’s only a short 30-minute bus ride from Raleigh to Durham. Duke is coming off back-to-back losses, the most recent on the road in the bayou against Tulane. Both teams have their motivations in this one, with the Wolfpack trying to maintain a perfect season and the Blue Devils looking to build momentum before heading into the rest of their ACC play. NC State has been one of the quietest 3-0 teams in college football to this point and will look to showcase their talent against what appears to be an equivalent opponent on paper. They have been extremely balanced on offense, with a strong run game and effective passing attack. The defense has struggled at times in the first half but typically comes out in the second half with effective adjustments. Duke, on the other hand, has been a pass-heavy team offensively and hasn’t been able to put together a strong defensive performance against a competent opponent.

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Weather

The weather for this game looks to be shaping up nicely. Temperatures will stay in the mid to low 80s throughout, with no chance of precipitation. Winds could play a small factor, averaging around 8 mph with gusts up to 13 mph.

Betting Overview

This game has stayed close to its original line of -3 in favor of Duke. Some books now list Duke at -3.5, while FanDuel is the lone book at -2.5. The moneyline has shifted slightly for both teams, with NC State opening at +110 and now sitting between +115 and +125, while Duke has moved from -130 to between -140 and -150. The total has dipped slightly from its original 57.5 to 56.5 at some sportsbooks.

Duke has taken the last two matchups (2023 and 2024) between these programs, covering the spread and hitting the under in both games. Before that, these teams hadn’t faced off since 2020.

Through three games this season, NC State is 2-1 ATS, with both covers coming in ACC play. Their lone road game, last week against Wake Forest, also resulted in an NC State cover. The over has been more common in NC State games so far, hitting in two of three, both in the last two weeks.

The Blue Devils have struggled ATS, starting 0-3. The over has cashed in all three Duke games to this point as well.

Power Ratings

According to all major power rating indexes, the NC State Wolfpack are ranked ahead of Duke. This suggests the current betting lines view the game as essentially a pick ’em, with Duke only slightly favored because of home-field advantage.

Final Thoughts

While the teams enter with very different records, this feels like a crossroads game for both. For NC State, a win could propel them onto a great path for the rest of the season and potentially put them in ACC contention by year’s end. For Duke, failing to win this in-state matchup would leave them well behind the eight ball and could set up a long remainder of the season. NC State will be without starting defensive end Sebastian Harsh for the first half, and wide receiver Wesley Grimes is dealing with an injury. Even so, the Wolfpack appear stronger up front on both sides, which should lead them to victory Saturday.