Game: Clemson Tigers vs. UNC Tar Heels

Date: October 4th at 12:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN 

Both Clemson and UNC are coming off a much-needed bye week, as both squads lost their Week 4 game. Before the season started, this was one of those matchups people had circled on the calendar, with the most decorated ACC coach in the game right now facing arguably the best NFL coach of all time. Clemson enters this game at 1-3 overall, with struggles on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Cade Klubnik noted the offense was running more of an up-tempo style, which helped later in the Syracuse game, so expect them to bring that into this matchup with UNC. The Tar Heels enter at 2-2 and have struggled to find an effective formula on offense, particularly against teams with equal or better talent. This will be Carolina’s first ACC game of the season, and it comes against a team that should be better on paper, so it will be fascinating to see which version of these teams shows up Saturday afternoon.

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Weather

Things are shaping up to be very pleasant in Chapel Hill this Saturday, with a high of 77℉ and a 0% chance of rain. Wind also won’t be a major factor, with averages around 4 mph and gusts up to 9 mph.

Betting Overview

Clemson vs. UNC opened with Clemson as 12.5-point favorites, with the line moving slightly further in their favor to between -13.5 and -14.5 depending on the book. Surprisingly, moneylines have narrowed a touch, with Clemson shifting from -650 to between -600 and -700, and UNC from +470 to between +430 and +475. The total has also ticked up slightly from 45.5 to between 46.5 and 47 depending on the sportsbook.

Power Rankings

  • ESPN FPI: The ESPN FPI is still relatively high on Clemson, rating them 45th and UNC 85th in the nation. The FPI would make Clemson 12.1-point favorites on a neutral field, which suggests value on UNC in this matchup.
  • SP+: The SP+ rating system isn’t quite as high on Clemson, ranking them 57th, with Carolina close behind at 86th. SP+ would favor Clemson by 10.2 points on a neutral field.
  • Sagarin: The Sagarin model operates a little differently than the previous two and doesn’t project neutral field spreads. It is still very high on Clemson, rating them 34th, while UNC comes in at 79th.

Betting Trends

Dating back to 2019, these programs have faced off three times, most recently in 2023. The Tigers have won all three straight up, though they failed to cover in 2019. The under has cashed in all three matchups.

Clemson enters this game 0-4 ATS, with the under also hitting in three of their four contests. In their lone road game against Georgia Tech, the under was the result.

UNC has fared slightly better ATS this season at 2-2. At home, the Tar Heels are 1-1 ATS, with the loss coming in Week 1 as underdogs to TCU. The under has also been the stronger trend for UNC, hitting in three of their four games. The only over came in that same opener against TCU.

Final Thoughts

As unappealing as this matchup may be from a records standpoint, it becomes much more intriguing from a betting perspective. Both teams have yet to prove much and are coming off a bye. The one factor I can’t ignore is how poorly the Tar Heels have performed when facing stronger opponents. For that reason, I lean slightly toward Clemson covering here.

The total feels more uncertain, as it largely depends on which version of the UNC offense shows up. That said, if I had to play it, I’d lean toward the under at the current line of 46.5–47.