During my offseason research, I found a couple of things that I wanted to highlight coming into the season – the performance of heavy moneyline favorites and a fascinating trend regarding Stanley Cup winners. The two sort of go hand in hand, since big favorites during the course of the season are likely teams that will make the playoffs and have a chance at a championship.
Be sure to read my 32 NHL Team Previews with plenty of futures and best bets.
Betting Big NHL Favorites
Embed from Getty ImagesIn my first year with VSiN, one of the many trends that I began tracking was the results of NHL favorites of -300 or greater and if they were profitable. From the chart below, you can see favorites -300 and greater were dominant at 67-18, but a $100 bettor (always betting to win $100) would have only been up 3.35 units.
If you focused only on the games when the favorite was -400 or greater, that same $100 bettor would have been up 6.75 units. Where you would have been most profitable was targeting the underdog to score a first period goal when the favorite was -400 and higher. In the 24 games last season with a -400+ favorite, the underdog scored in the first period of 19 of the 24 games.
Here is a chart of how all of the teams in that role did and some first period results:
| Date | Team | Money Line | Win or Loss (Fav) | Puck Line Win | Goal 1st 10, Yes/NO | 1st Period Over 1.5, Yes/NO | Full Game Over the total, Yes/NO | Both Teams to Score 1st Per | Favorite Only-Dog Only -Both Teams-Neither Team to score in the first period |
| Boston | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-0-1-0 | |
| Calgary | |||||||||
| -300+ | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-0-1-0 | ||
| Carolina | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 12-1 | 7-6 | 10-3 | 10-3 | 5-8 | 7-6 | 1-4-7-1 | |
| -400+ | 3-1 | 1-3 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0-2-2-0 | ||
| Colorado | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 5-2 | 5-2 | 4-3 | 4-3 | 4-3 | 4-3 | 1-1-4-1 | |
| -400+ | 3-0 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-1-1-1 | ||
| Dallas | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 7-1 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 2-5-1 | 1-7 | 4-1-1-2 | |
| -400+ | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-1-1-0 | ||
| Edmonton | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 6-2 | 3-5 | 5-3 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 5-3 | 1-2-5-0 | |
| -400+ | 4-0 | 1-3 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 1-1-2-0 | ||
| Florida | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 2-1-3-2 | |
| -400+ | 3-0 | 3-0 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-0-1-1 | ||
| LA Kings | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 2-1 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-1-1 | 0-3 | 2-0-0-1 | |
| Minnesota | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-0-1-0 | |
| Montreal | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-0-1-0 | |
| Nashville | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 2-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-0-1-0 | |
| -400+ | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-0-1-0 | ||
| Ottawa | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-0-0-0 | |
| Jersey | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 3-2 | 3-2 | 2-3 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 0-5 | 1-3-0-1 | |
| Rangers | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 2-0 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-1-0-1 | |
| -400+ | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1-0-0 | ||
| St. Louis | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0-0-1 | |
| Tampa | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 3-2 | 2-3 | 3-2 | 2-3 | 3-2 | 1-4 | 4-0-1-0 | |
| Toronto | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 1-0-1-1 | |
| -400+ | 1-1 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1-0-1-0 | ||
| Utah | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | NO | 1-0-0-0 | |
| Vancouver | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | NO | 0-0-0-1 | |
| Vegas | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 6-0 | 6-0 | 3-3 | 4-2 | 4-2 | 2-4 | 3-1-2-0 | |
| -400+ | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-0-1-0 | ||
| Washington | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 0-0-2-0 | |
| -400+ | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-0-1-0 | ||
| Winnipeg | |||||||||
| Overall | -300+ | 4-1 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 3-2 | 1-4 | 1-2-1-1 | |
| -400+ | 2-0 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-0-1-0 | ||
| Overall Totals | |||||||||
| -300+ Favorites | 67-18 | 45-40 | 46-39 | 45-40 | 40-43-2 | 32-Yes, 53- NO | 16 times the Dog was the only team to score. 48 of the 85 games the Dog scored a goal | ||
| -400+ Favorites | 21-3 | 12-12 | 16-8 | 15-9 | 10-14 | 12-12 | 19 of the 24 games the Dog has scored |
Traits of Stanley Cup Winners
Dating back to 2009, the 2019 St. Louis Blues are the only team to win the Stanley Cup without having a player on their roster who was drafted either first or second overall. Of the other 16 winners, the Vegas Golden Knights (Eichel 2nd overall by Buffalo) are the only team to have a player on their Cup-winning roster that was one of the top two picks drafted by another team.
Currently, there are 12 teams in the NHL that don’t have a player on their roster that they or another team drafted with one of the top two picks. Below is a list of those teams.
Eastern Conference: Boston Bruins, Columbus Blue Jackets, Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers
Western Conference: Calgary Flames, Dallas Stars, Minnesota Wild, St. Louis Blues, Utah Hockey Club, Vancouver Canucks, Winnipeg Jets
| Year | Cup Winner | Player | Pick 1 or 2 | Year Drafted |
| 2025 | Florida | Aaron Ekblad | 1 | 2014 |
| Florida | Aleksander Barkov | 2 | 2013 | |
| 2024 | Florida | Aaron Ekblad | 1 | 2014 |
| Aleksander Barkov | 2 | 2013 | ||
| 2023 | Vegas | XXXXX | XXXXX | XXXXX |
| Note: | Jack Eichel | 2 (Buffalo) | 2015 | |
| 2022 | Colorado | Nathan MacKinnon | 1 | 2013 |
| Gabriel Landeskog | 2 | 2011 | ||
| 2021 | Tampa | Victor Hedman | 2 | 2009 |
| 2020 | Tampa | Victor Hedman | 2 | 2009 |
| 2019 | St. Louis | XXXXX | XXXXXX | XXXXXX |
| 2018 | Washington | Alex Ovechkin | 1 | 2004 |
| 2017 | Pittsburgh | Sidney Crosby | 1 | 2005 |
| Geno Malkin | 2 | 2004 | ||
| Marc-Andre Fleury | 1 | 2003 | ||
| 2016 | Pittsburgh | Sidney Crosby | 1 | 2005 |
| Geno Malkin | 2 | 2004 | ||
| Marc-Andre Fleury | 1 | 2003 | ||
| 2015 | Chicago | Patrick Kane | 1 | 2007 |
| 2014 | LA Kings | Drew Doughty | 2 | 2008 |
| 2013 | Chicago | Patrick Kane | 1 | 2007 |
| 2012 | LA Kings | Drew Doughty | 2 | 2008 |
| 2011 | Boston | Tyler Seguin | 2 | 2010 |
| 2010 | Chicago | Patrick Kane | 1 | 2007 |
| 2009 | Pittsburgh | Sidney Crosby | 1 | 2005 |
| Geno Malkin | 2 | 2004 | ||
| Marc Andre Fleury | 1 | 2003 |
The post Betting on Big NHL Favorites: Is It Profitable? appeared first on VSiN.
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