I’ll admit that I went to bed at halftime of the Monday Night Football game with the assumption that the Jags were doomed and my +3.5 bet was dead. You can imagine my surprise when I woke up and saw the Jags won on a Trevor Lawrence “run” (more like a stumble) and the game sailed over the total of 45.5. That’s betting for you; you’ve never won or lost until that game is officially over because wacky stuff inevitably happens. That’s why I always find it funny when people try to troll or celebrate on X after two drives of a game, only to disappear afterwards when the variance evens out. Anyway, TSI is cooking in the NFL so far this season and had another +5 unit week in Week 5, so let’s get to the Week 6 bets I like so far.

Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.

Pittsburgh (-5) vs. Cleveland, O/U 38

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Cleveland found a way to lose another game on Sunday morning in London, this time to the Minnesota Vikings, although the Browns did cover the +4.5. Pittsburgh was on a bye last week, so they definitely have the rest advantage here over the jet-lagged Browns in a divisional game. TSI projects Steelers -6.5 in this game, and Pittsburgh has favorable projections in touchdown %, points per play, red zone scoring, and points per game (all opponent-adjusted). You’d think with it being a divisional game that these are normally close games, but over the last five meetings, the winner has an average margin of 8 points per game. I like Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers to get the cover here.
NFL Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -5

Baltimore vs. Los Angeles Rams (-7.5), O/U 44.5

Baltimore got its first dose of reality without Lamar Jackson, who is out with an injury, last week against Houston, losing 44-10 and sailing over the total by two touchdowns. I bet the Ravens’ Over last week. I’m coming back for more because I don’t think the market has caught up to how horrendous their defense is, which feels weird to say. Houston was only averaging 16 points per game coming into last week and hung 44 on this defense. LA is averaging 24.5 coming into this game, so don’t be shocked to see them cover this Over themselves against this Ravens defense that’s now allowing 35 points per game. If Baltimore contributes anything to the total, it will sail over, as TSI projects 56.5 points in this game. 
NFL Pick: Over 44.5

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