Game: Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers

Date: October 19th at 8:20 PM ET

Where to Watch: NBC

This week, the Atlanta Falcons find themselves in another primetime slot—this time on Sunday Night Football—as they make the trek west to face the San Francisco 49ers. Atlanta has really just been a great all-around team over the past few weeks. From an offensive standpoint, they’re 2nd in yards per game (378.8), though things could be better in the scoring department as they’re 27th in the league (20 points per game). This team has really stood out defensively, ranking 7th in points allowed (20) and 1st in yards allowed per game (253.4). San Francisco has had similar offensive struggles, sitting 24th in the NFL in scoring (20.8), while ranking 6th in yards per game (373.7). Defensively, the 49ers rank 15th in both points allowed per game (21.3) and yards allowed per game (321.7). The most intriguing matchup in this game will certainly be San Francisco’s high-volume passing offense against the number one passing defense in the NFL. Both teams have similar records, and this should be a good battle on Sunday night.

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Weather

This game will be about as close as you can get to playing in a dome while being outdoors, as temperatures will sit in the mid to high 60s throughout with a 0% chance of rain. Winds also don’t appear to be an issue, with averages around 7 mph and gusts up to 8 mph.

Betting Overview

We’ve seen the spread in this one move pretty significantly from its opening line of San Francisco -6.5, as the 49ers are now a 1.5 to 2.5-point favorite depending on the book. Similar movement can be seen in the moneyline, shifting from +225 for Atlanta to between +108 and +115, while San Francisco has gone from -278 to between -126 and -140. The over/under has remained steady around the original 47.5 mark, with some books moving to 47 or 46.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: Kyle Shanahan and company have obviously shown how effective they can be. Even with injuries, this 49ers team still finds a way to stay competitive. This is no knock on Raheem Morris and what he and his staff have done; it’s just hard to scheme against a coach like Shanahan, especially in the regular season.

DLs vs. OLs: The Falcons certainly have the advantage in this department. Their offensive line has graded out as one of the best overall units in the league, and both defensive lines are fairly average. San Francisco’s o-line hasn’t particularly impressed up to this point either.

QBs: In the absence of Brock Purdy, Mac Jones has held his own for the most part. Things seem to be trending toward him making the start again this week, and even as a backup he has looked more consistent than Michael Penix Jr.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: It’s hard to bet against the Falcons with how strong their run game has been, led by Bijan Robinson. Kyle Pitts has also seemingly hit his stride this season, and the 49ers are a little banged up in the TE/LB departments, so the Falcons have the clear edge here.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Atlanta also finds themselves with the edge in this area. The wide receiver room is slightly better than San Francisco’s at the moment, and there’s no question which secondary has been stronger.

Betting Trends

The Falcons come into this game with identical ATS and straight-up records at 3-2. They’ve been a great team to bet on as an underdog, going 2-0 in that spot, but on the road they’re an even 1-1. Overs have been hard to come by for Atlanta, as 4 of their 5 games have resulted in the under. On the road this season, both of Atlanta’s games have hit the under, as have both games in which they’ve been underdogs.

San Francisco is currently .500 on the season ATS with a 3-3 record. They haven’t fared too well, however, as the home team, sitting at 0-2 ATS. They are 2-2 in games where they’ve been favored, though. 49ers games have leaned toward the over, hitting in 4 of 6, but have split 1 apiece in their home games. The over has also hit in all 3 non-division matchups.

Final Thoughts

This game should be an exciting watch on Sunday night, as both teams match up pretty well. With the Falcons making the trip out west on a short week, I have to lean slightly in favor of San Francisco in this one. With the line sitting around 1.5 to 2.5, I like the 49ers to cover. With the total at 47.5, I slightly favor the under, though that could go either way given the favorable weather.