Game: Atlanta Falcons vs. Indianapolis Colts

Date: November 9th at 9:30 AM ET

Where to Watch: NFL Network

After a week off from the NFL’s international schedule, overseas play returns this week as the Atlanta Falcons are set to take on the Indianapolis Colts in Berlin, Germany on Sunday morning. For Atlanta, things haven’t come easy over the past few weeks, as they’ve dropped three straight games, bringing their record to 3-5 on the season. Offensively, it’s been a struggle — they rank 15th in yards per game (335.9) and 28th in points per game (17.9). On the other side, the defense has been solid, ranking 4th in yards allowed per game (282.5) and 13th in points allowed per game (22.3).  The offense will need to step up for Atlanta this week in some form or fashion, as this Colts team has been strong on both sides of the ball. 

Indianapolis lost for the first time in several weeks this past Sunday in a hard-fought battle against the Pittsburgh Steelers, dropping to 7-2 on the year. The offense has been one of the best in the NFL, ranking 2nd in yards per game (383.3) and 1st in points per game (32.2). Defensively, this is a bend-but-don’t-break unit, ranking 16th in yards allowed per game (331.8) and 7th in points allowed per game (20.1).

Every week is obviously important in the NFL, but for Atlanta, avoiding a deeper hole is critical, while Indianapolis will be focused on maintaining the strong momentum it has built over the past several weeks.

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Weather

Temperatures for this game will be in the mid-40s throughout, with a 60% chance of rain. Winds shouldn’t be much of a factor, averaging around 5 mph with gusts up to 10 mph.

Betting Overview

Preseason, we actually saw the Falcons favored in this matchup at -1.5, but with how these teams’ seasons have unfolded, the Colts now sit as 6.5-point favorites. The moneyline initially opened around -110 for both teams, but Atlanta is now listed at +270, while Indianapolis can be found at -295. The over/under opened at 44.5 and has since climbed to 48 or 48.5 depending on the book.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: Offensive-minded head coach Shane Steichen has completely turned things around for Daniel Jones and this Colts offense. Raheem Morris hasn’t done a bad job, but the progress Indianapolis has made under Steichen gives the Colts the clear edge in this category.

DLs vs. OLs: Both teams feature strong offensive lines, and you could make a case for either side. However, the Colts get the advantage here, as their defensive line has been much more effective at generating push against both the run and the pass.

QBs: As mentioned in the coaching section, Daniel Jones has made a complete 180 this season. He’s been one of the better quarterbacks in the league, and the same can’t be said for Michael Penix Jr. at this point.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: This is an intriguing matchup, as both teams have talented running backs and solid tight ends. However, Atlanta holds a noticeable edge at linebacker, so I’d lean toward the Falcons in this area, especially over the middle of the field.

WRs vs. Secondaries: The wide receiver rooms are fairly even, but Atlanta’s secondary remains one of the best, if not the best, in the NFL. The Colts are solid in their own right, but the Falcons take the edge here.

Betting Trends

Atlanta is 4-4 ATS this season, and this will mark their first neutral-site matchup. In non-conference play, the Falcons are 2-1 ATS. We’ve seen more unders in Atlanta games overall, with the under hitting in 5 of 8 contests, while going 1-1-1 in non-conference matchups.

Indianapolis sits at 6-3 ATS on the season but is currently 0-2 in games outside the AFC. The over has been slightly more favorable, cashing in 5 of 9 games, and has split 1-1 against NFC opponents.

Final Thoughts

Both teams will obviously have to manage the challenges of overseas travel for this matchup. While Atlanta’s record doesn’t stack up to Indianapolis’s, I do think the Falcons will stay competitive and manage to cover. With how much the total has climbed, I’d lean toward the under based on the current line.