Game: New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date: November 9th at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: CBS

The team with the best record in the NFC South, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, will host the New England Patriots this week. New England, a divisional leader in their own right, enters this matchup at 7-2, riding a six-game winning streak. Offensively, the Patriots rank inside the top half of the league, sitting 12th in yards per game (350.7) and 7th in points per game (26.3). They’ve been even stronger defensively, ranking 9th in yards allowed per game (299) and 6th in points allowed per game (18.8).

The Buccaneers come off a much-needed bye week as they continue to deal with several injuries. Still, at 6-2, they remain firmly in control of their divisional race and look to create more separation in the standings. Offensively, Tampa Bay has been solid but unspectacular, ranking 17th in yards per game (323) and 15th in scoring (24.6). Defensively, they’ve been similarly consistent, allowing 321.4 yards per game (15th) and 22.3 points per game (13th).

This matchup stands out as one of the most compelling games of the early slate, as the red-hot Patriots face a well-rested Buccaneers team looking to prove its strength coming out of the bye.

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Weather

New England will be greeted by unseasonably warm weather in Tampa, with temperatures expected to sit in the low 80s throughout the game. Precipitation could be a factor, with a 55% chance of rain in the forecast. Winds should remain moderate, averaging around 7 mph with gusts reaching up to 18 mph.

Betting Overview

At some sportsbooks, Tampa Bay opened as 4.5-point favorites, but that number has since dropped to -2.5 at most books. The moneyline has tightened considerably as well, with the best value currently at +125 for New England and -142 for Tampa Bay. The total has seen a slight uptick, moving from 46.5 to between 48 and 48.5 depending on where you look.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: As impressive as Mike Vrabel and his staff have been early in their tenure, Todd Bowles and his group have simply had more time to build continuity. Factoring in Tampa Bay’s home-field advantage as well, the edge here goes to the Buccaneers.

DLs vs. OLs: It’s surprising that a team as strong as Tampa Bay has struggled in the trenches. While New England isn’t dominant up front either, they do have the advantage on both sides of the line in this matchup.

QBs: This will be a fun one — a proven veteran versus a rising young quarterback. Experience often prevails in these spots, so the lean has to go toward Baker Mayfield.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Neither side boasts elite production offensively in this area, but the Patriots have the stronger linebacker corps, which gives them the upper hand over the middle.

WRs vs. Secondaries: This is a close call, especially with Tampa dealing with injuries among its receivers. New England’s secondary has been more consistent, so they get the slight edge here.

Betting Trends

To no surprise, the Patriots have been a solid team against the spread this season with a 6-3 record. On the road, they remain perfect at 4-0, with two of those wins coming as underdogs. In non-conference play, they’ve gone 2-1 ATS. Totals have leaned slightly toward the over, hitting in five of nine games, including a 2-2 split on the road and a 2-1 mark against NFC opponents.

The Buccaneers have also performed well ATS with a 5-3 record overall, though they’ve struggled at home, going just 1-2. Against AFC opponents, they’re 1-1 ATS. Totals have been evenly split at 4-4, but overs have been more favorable at home, where all three games have gone over the number. In non-conference matchups, the totals have split one apiece.

Final Thoughts

This matchup is shaping up to be one of the most exciting games of the weekend. While the trends certainly point toward the Patriots covering, I think Tampa Bay coming off the bye will give them just enough of an edge to cover the current 2.5-point spread. The total, however, feels tricky, so I’d recommend staying away from that market altogether.