Game: New York Jets at New England Patriots

Date: November 13th at 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: Prime Video

When looking ahead to this Thursday night matchup preseason, most people would have expected a battle between two struggling teams. The New York Jets have certainly lived up to that billing, but New England has completely flipped the script, emerging as one of the top teams in the NFL. While the Jets have faced their share of challenges this season, they’ve shown signs of life over their last two games, improving their record to 2-7. Offensively, they’ve struggled, ranking 28th in total yards per game (285.6) and 25th in scoring (21.7). Defensively, things haven’t been much better, sitting 18th in yards allowed per game (329.0) and 26th in points allowed (26.8).

The Patriots, on the other hand, extended their winning streak with last week’s victory over Tampa Bay, improving to 8-2 and tying for the best record in the AFC. Their offense continues to roll, ranking 11th in total yards per game (359.1) and 8th in points per game (26.5). Defensively, they’ve been stout as well, coming in 8th in yards allowed (306.2) and 6th in points allowed (19.2).

From a distance, this one looks like it could be a blowout. However, with these two teams being division rivals, it always has the potential to be a tighter, more competitive game than expected.

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Weather

This game will be played in fairly cold conditions, with temperatures expected to stay in the mid-30s throughout. Precipitation shouldn’t be a concern, with only a 4% chance of rain, but wind could play a factor — averaging around 9 mph with gusts reaching up to 23 mph.

Betting Overview

At the start of the season, the Patriots were modest 5.5-point favorites in this matchup. With how strong they’ve looked since then, that line has grown to 11.5 points in their favor. The best moneyline value currently sits at +550 for New York and -700 for New England. The total has also seen a small uptick, moving from the opening line of 42.5 to 43.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: This area of the game is heavily one-sided, as the Patriots’ coaching staff has clearly been more effective and better prepared throughout the season. They’ve consistently shown the ability to get up for “trap” games and remain competitive in close contests.

DLs vs. OLs: In the trenches, the Jets actually match up fairly well. The loss of Quinnen Williams certainly narrows the gap, but I’d still give a slight edge to New York up front.

QBs: Drake Maye has been outstanding recently, and there aren’t many quarterbacks in the league playing at his level. Justin Fields has done what he can with his situation, but at the moment, he just doesn’t quite compare.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: This matchup is fairly even overall, as both teams boast strong linebacker groups. The Jets have the advantage at running back, while the Patriots hold the edge in the tight end department.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Neither wide receiver group is particularly intimidating, especially with the Jets likely missing Garrett Wilson. However, their secondary has been the better unit, so even without Wilson, I’d lean slightly toward New York in this category.

Betting Trends

New England has controlled this rivalry in recent history, winning 8 of the last 10 matchups. The Patriots have also covered the spread in 7 of those 10 games, with the under hitting in 6 of them.

While the Jets have struggled straight up this season, they’ve been better against the spread at 5-4. On the road, they’ve performed well with a 2-1 ATS record, though they remain winless in the division at 0-2. Totals have leaned toward the over in their games, hitting in 6 of 9 overall and a perfect 3-0 on the road. In divisional play, the total has split 1-1.

The Patriots have been solid ATS as well, going 7-3 overall. However, they’ve been less consistent at home with a 2-3 record, and 2-2 as a home favorite. In the division, though, they’ve been perfect at 2-0. Totals have leaned slightly toward the over in New England games, cashing in 6 of 10 overall, 3 of 4 at home, and splitting 1-1 in divisional matchups.

Final Thoughts

Both teams enter this matchup riding some momentum after wins last week, which makes this short-week showdown even more intriguing. New England is coming off an emotional, hard-fought victory in Tampa Bay, and that type of game can take a toll both physically and mentally. Because of that, I expect the Patriots to start a bit sluggish. For that reason, I like the Jets to cover in this one. I’d also lean slightly toward the over on the total.