UFC 322 brings a stacked card with championship implications across two divisions, as Jack Della Maddalena defends his welterweight title for the first time against Islam Makhachev, and Valentina Shevchenko looks to hold off Weili Zhang in a historic flyweight title defense.
Our predictive model heads into this weekend at 159-92-12, good for 63.35% on the year, and we’re looking to close out the final stretch of 2025 high-value spots. From proven veterans to rising contenders, this is a slate with plenty to dissect and a few potential trap lines hiding in plain sight.
We also broke down the card on this week’s episode of First Strike on VSiN with guest Reed Kuhn, author of the book Fightnomics. Catch the full episode wherever you get your podcasts or on YouTube.
Now let’s dig into some numbers.
Pat Sabatini (-130) vs Chepe Mariscal (+110)
Embed from Getty ImagesWe’re starting the night with a classic grappler vs striker matchup.
Pat Sabatini is riding a two-fight win streak and is 3-2 over his last five, with both losses coming by knockout. Meanwhile, Jose “Chepe” Mariscal is undefeated in the UFC at 5-0, and hasn’t lost a fight since 2020. Overall, he’s on an 8-0 run and looks like a serious prospect.
- xR% numbers are solid on both ends:Chepe sits at 83%, with Pat not far behind at 76%.
- Sabatini’s path to victory has traditionally been his ground game. He’s attempted an insane 14.34 takedowns per 5 minutes with 49% accuracy, and maintains 87% control rate once it hits the mat.
- His danger lies in submissions. 9 attempts in the UFC, and 13 submission wins across his career.
- But Chepe’s no slouch in the clinch either. He holds a 70% control rate in close and has stuffed 73% of takedown attempts against him.
On the feet, this is Chepe’s world.
- He lands 4.95 significant strikes per minute, with a +1.87 differential, compared to Sabatini’s 1.87 per minute with a modest +0.65 differential.
- Sabatini absorbs very little, just 1.22 per minute, but his output simply isn’t there to match Chepe unless he can smother him with wrestling.
The model leans Chepe Mariscal here, and at +114, you don’t need a sure thing. We’ve been hitting underdogs at a 40% clip this year at similar or higher prices, and Chepe’s 62% win probability from the model makes him a value side.
Roman Kopylov (+160) vs Gregory Rodrigues (-185)
This one’s going to be a banger. No need to dress it up.
Roman Kopylov enters off a decision loss to Paulo Costa in July, while Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues rebounded from his loss to Jared Cannonier with a TKO win over Jack Hermansson. Both have proven themselves as legit middleweight threats.
Now, let’s dig in:
- xR% shows a clear edge for Robocop — 67% vs Kopylov’s 52%.
- Between them, they’ve got 11 knockouts in the UFC. This one should stay standing, and it should get violent.
- Kopylov lands 4.74 significant strikes per minute, but absorbs 5.08. His differential is negative at -0.34.
- Rodrigues lands more at 5.53 per minute, and his differential is a solid +0.55, absorbing 4.97 per minute.
- Both guys have landed serious damage over their careers — 6 knockdowns for Kopylov, 7 for Rodrigues.
- Neither has shown much vulnerability to being dropped: Kopylov’s only been knocked down once, while Robocop has hit the mat 3 times.
If for some reason we go to the grappling, the edge is Robocop.
- He holds a 74% control rate in clinch/ground time.
- But both guys have very strong takedown defense at 88% for Kopylov, 90% for Rodrigues.
It’s tight. On the surface this looks like a coin flip, but the model actually leans Rodrigues with more confidence than expected, giving him a 69.71% win probability.
At the current odds of -185, it’s not a blowout value, you have to measure your tolerance for risk. These guys are going to be swinging some heavy fists and that line might be a pass at the moment.
Erin Blanchfield (-235) vs Tracy Cortez (+200)
A sneaky good matchup with a bit of history behind it.
Erin Blanchfield, still just 26 years old, has already been a win away from a title shot. After her loss to Manon Fiorot, she bounced back last November with a decision win over Rose Namajunas. Solid rebound.
But before all that, Tracy Cortez handed Erin her first professional loss back in 2019. Now they run it back with both women firmly in the top tier of the division.
Let’s talk data:
- xR% edge goes a tiny way to Blanchfield: 74% vs 67%.
- Blanchfield also has 3 UFC submission wins, and a slight strength of schedule edge based on recent opponents.
- Blanchfield lands 5.24 sig. strikes/min, +1.03 differential. Surprising numbers considering her grappling strength.
- Cortez lands 3.71/min, +0.84 differentialBut Cortez absorbs just 2.87 per minute compared to Blanchfield’s 4.21.
So Cortez stays safer, but Blanchfield’s volume and aggression stand out.
Now to the grappling.
- Blanchfield has a massive 96% control rate of clinch/ground time.
- Cortez isn’t far behind though, 71% control rate, with 15 takedowns at 45% accuracy.
- Blanchfield has 14 takedowns herself but at just 32% accuracy.
- Defensively, Blanchfield leads: 80% takedown defense vs Cortez’s 61%.
The big question: Can Blanchfield get Cortez down and keep her there?
The model says yes, barely. It gives Blanchfield a 71% win probability, which lines up exactly with her market odds of -245 (71.01%). So there’s no value edge here on the moneyline.
But how to play it?
- Cortez has only been finished once, her pro debut, and only 2 losses in her career.
- The Over 2.5 is heavily juiced, and Blanchfield by Decision sits at -150. The likelier scenario here.
- Submission prop sits at +500, if you believe Erin can pull off a surprise slick finish.
Valentina Shevchenko (-130) vs Weili Zhang (+110)
This is legacy stuff.
Valentina Shevchenko is chasing history. A win here would give her:
- 11 title fight wins, tying Amanda Nunes and Anderson Silva for fourth-most all time.
- And she’s already the first UFC fighter to fill all 8 rubies on her championship belt plate. That’s dominance.
Shevchenko lost the belt briefly to Alexa Grasso in 2023, but she’s bounced back and is riding momentum into this one.
Enter Weili Zhang, the 2x strawweight champ, now moving up to challenge for the flyweight crown. Outside of two losses to Rose Namajunas, she’s been a force and she’s riding a 5-fight win streak, most recently beating Tatiana Suarez in February.
Note: The model does NOT account for weight class changes. That’s up to us.
Size comparison:
- Shevchenko is 1 inch taller and has a 3-inch reach advantage (66” to 63”).
- She’s also been fighting at this weight class for years, which matters.
Striking stats:
- Shevchenko: 3.14 sig. strikes/min, +1.08 differentialAbsorbs just 2.06/min
- Zhang: 5.18/min, massive +2.42 differentialAbsorbs only 2.76/min
Zhang wins on volume, but again, those numbers are from 115 lbs. Shevchenko’s efficiency and defensive stats are elite at 125 lbs.
Grappling:
- Shevchenko: 67% control rate, 59 takedowns, 60% accuracy
- Zhang: 74% control rate, similar defense (74% vs 76%)
Both are well-rounded, but Valentina’s takedown output is a game-changer. That’s been her weapon in longer fights, especially late. She doesn’t mind grinding it out over the five potential rounds. Shevchenko has the longest average fight time in UFC history — not just women’s MMA — overall.
El Modelo Says:
- 56% win probability for Shevchenko
- Current odds: -130, which is 56.52% implied
So again, the model is right in line with the odds, technically no edge on the moneyline. But we still have to weight the fact that Weili Zhang is coming up to a new division. Valentina has not only dominated this division, but she was also a force at bantamweight. She’s fought bigger, stronger women before and it’s hard to imagine Weili will be able to control Valentina.
Shevchenko is potentially the next women’s MMA GOAT and we have her priced at -120 to -130. That personally seems like a great price for a history making champion.
Jack Della Maddalena (+215) vs Islam Makhachev (-250)
Jack Della Maddalena has gone from a regional standout to undisputed UFC welterweight champ and now, he gets the biggest spotlight of his career.
After starting his pro career 0-2, he hasn’t lost since 2016. He’s now riding a 18-fight win streak, including an 8-0 UFC run. Most recently, he beat Belal Muhammad in May to capture the title.
Enter Islam Makhachev, the former lightweight king, now moving up to 170 lbs. He vacated his lightweight title, went 4-0 in title defense fights, and is widely considered one of the most dominant grapplers in the sport.
This is also the first time in UFC history that four active champions who haven’t lost their belts are fighting on the same card, thanks to how divisions are shifting.
Physical matchup:
- JDM is 5’11” with a 73” reach
- Islam is 5’10” with a 70” reach
- Size edge goes to JDM and remember, Islam doesn’t have the size edge he enjoyed at 155 anymore.
Striking stats:
- JDM: 6.78 sig. strikes/min, +2.19 differentialAbsorbs: 4.58/min6 knockdowns scored and never knocked down
- Islam: 2.63/min, +1.07 differentialAbsorbs: 1.55/min4 knockdowns and dropped twice in his UFC career
JDM’s output is much higher. Islam’s defense is airtight. The question is: can JDM keep this fight standing?
Grappling edge: Islam. Always.
- 84% control rate in clinch/ground
- 37 takedowns, 54% accuracy
- 4.56 takedown attempts per 5 minutes
- JDM takedown defense sits at 69%, not bad, but maybe untested at this level
Can Islam translate his dominant wrestling/grappling ability to larger, stronger opponents in the welterweight division?
The Model Says:
- 70% win probability for Islam Makhachev
- Current market odds: -250 (implied 71%)
That’s a bit too wide for the model’s liking. While it favors Islam, the current price is too steep to find betting value.
No play on the moneyline at current odds. It’s a dog or pass situation on the side.
Best betting angle? Totals.
- Over 3.5 rounds at -120 looks like a solid lean
- Both fighters are tough to finish
- JDM’s never been knocked down
- Islam typically grinds guys down instead of hunting early finishes
You can even hunt around at an alternate total of 2.5, would still be cheaper than an Islam moneyline bet.
That wraps up the betting breakdown for UFC 322. A card loaded with narratives, champions, and chances to find edges if you dig deep enough.
Don’t forget to check out the full episode of First Strike available everywhere you get your podcasts and on YouTube.
Follow us on X:
@TheRobbeo | @DaveRossSports
Below are win probabilities for each fight modeled through El Modelo.
For the crews official bets, check out VSiN.com/picks for all our bets heading into Saturday’s card.
Final Predictions | Modelo Win Prob. %
- Islam Makhachev | 70.15%
- Valentina Shevchenko | 56.91%
- Leon Edwards | 55.73%
- Beneil Dariush | 58.54%
- Michael Morales | 63.33%
- Erin Blanchfield | 71.02%
- Fatima Kline | 77.00%
- Gerald Meerschaert | 54.02%
- Bo Nickal | 60.41%
- Gregory Rodrigues | 69.71%
- Chepe Mariscal | 62.49%
The post UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs Makhachev Predictions From The First Strike Podcast appeared first on VSiN.
Leave A Comment