Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills

Date: November 16th at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: CBS

In another NFC South vs AFC East game, we have a matchup between two teams that have seemingly lost a step in the last few weeks, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Buffalo Bills. Tampa Bay in particular has looked a little sluggish outside of the Saints game in the last week of October, though they are still 6-3 on the year. Offensively, things have been fine as they’re 17th in yards per game (328.3) and 11th in points per game (24.4). On the other side of the ball, things have been in the same boat as they’re 20th in yards allowed per game (334) along with 14th in points allowed per game (22.9).

The Bills definitely took a shock to the system last week in Miami, where they were beaten in all three phases of the game, but like the Buccaneers they’re also still a 6-3 team. On the offensive side of the ball they are still statistically great at 2nd in yards per game (384.4) and 6th in points per game (27.6). Defensively they haven’t been bad by any means, but they’re around league average at 14th in yards allowed per game (317.8), paired with being 11th in points allowed per game (21.9).

Considering both of these teams have Super Bowl aspirations, they both understand how important each and every regular season game is. While this game won’t make or break their chances to make the playoffs, this game and every game is vital to seeding.

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Weather

There will be no question where this game is being played when we see the weather on Sunday, and it isn’t Florida. Buffalo is expected to see a wintry mix with a 60% chance of precipitation and temperatures in the low 40s. Wind will be a huge factor with averages around 23 mph, and gusts up to 38 mph.

Betting Overview

Betting markets have stayed steady with this one, as everywhere has held with Buffalo at -5.5. The same can be said for the moneyline, as the best option for Tampa is at +220 and for Buffalo at -245. The total has fallen a little bit from the opening number of 49.5 to 47 or 47.5 depending on the book.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: We will see a strong coaching matchup in this one. We have two defensive-minded head coaches in Todd Bowles and Sean McDermott. Ultimately it comes down to tenure here, and McDermott has been in this Bills organization longer than Bowles has been with Tampa.

DLs vs. OLs: Buffalo dominates on both sides of the line in this game, as the Bucs have not been strong on either side all season.

QBs: You certainly can’t take Baker Mayfield in this matchup when the other guy has just won the MVP. While Allen clearly has the edge here, this will be an exciting matchup to watch.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Buffalo also has the advantage in this department, as they’re stronger in every area here. Tampa is also very banged up in the linebacker room, though Dalton Kincaid dealing with a hamstring injury is worth noting.

WRs vs. Secondaries: In this area of the game, on the outside you have to give the nod to Buffalo again. I would say Tampa’s receiver room is better, but the secondary in Buffalo is much better.

Betting Trends

Tampa is now 5-4 ATS, with a 4-1 record on the road and a 3-1 record as a road underdog. In non-conference games though, they’re just 1-2 ATS. We’ve seen the over hit in 5 of 9 games, but the under has hit in 4 of 5 away games and 3 of 4 away games as the underdog. In non-conference games the over has hit in 2 of 3.

Buffalo is now 4-5 ATS on the year, with a 2-3 record at home and an 0-3 record as a home favorite. In non-conference play they’re just 1-2 ATS. Unders have been more favorable, hitting in 5 of 9, though at home the over has hit in 3 of 5, along with 2 of 3 as a home favorite and 2 of 3 non-conference games.

Final Thoughts

With this game projected to have some unruly weather, it should place a big emphasis on the line of scrimmage. Due to Buffalo being the better team up front, I think they come into this one and defy the current trends and cover their first game as a home favorite this season. As for the over/under, I would lean in favor of the under in this one.