Game: Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

Date: November 22nd at 3:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ACC Network

If you squint hard enough, you might think we’re in peak basketball season. This week, though, Duke and UNC will meet on the gridiron in Chapel Hill. The Blue Devils have dropped two straight and now sit at 5-5, no longer resembling the strong team they were earlier in the year. Their offense has held up well, averaging 420 yards per game (29th in FBS) and 32.1 points per game (24th in FBS), but the defense has struggled badly, allowing 435.9 yards per game (119th in FBS) and 31 points per game (101st in FBS).

UNC, meanwhile, followed two straight wins with a loss last week at Wake Forest, bringing them to 4-6 and needing two wins to reach a bowl. Statistically, they’re almost the inverse of Duke: the offense has been one of the weakest in the nation, putting up just 287.4 yards per game (129th in FBS) and 16.2 points per game (129th in FBS). The defense, however, has been solid, giving up 344.6 yards per game (37th in FBS) and 23.8 points per game (50th in FBS).

Duke appears to have the stronger overall team, but in rivalry games, some of that goes out the window. This sets up what should be an exciting matchup on Saturday.

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Weather

The weather could certainly play a factor in this game, with a 71% chance of precipitation. Temperatures will sit in the 50s to 60s depending on the point in the game. Winds should remain light, averaging around 4 mph with occasional gusts up to 15 mph.

Betting Overview

We haven’t seen much movement in this line, as most books have stayed around Duke -6.5, with a few creeping up to -7. The best moneyline prices are currently -250 for Duke and +210 for UNC. The total has also remained steady, opening at 51.5 and holding firm at that number.

Power Ratings 

  • ESPN FPI: Duke currently sits at 51st in the FPI giving 4.9 points to the FBS average, while UNC is at 90th receiving 6 points from the FBS average.  Based on these metrics we would see Duke closer to 9-point favorites, with the Heels being at home.
  • SP+: This model is not as high on Duke, as they sit at 57th giving 3.9 points to the FBS average.  UNC is one spot above where they are FPI at 89th, getting 5.1 points from the FBS average.  This model would be more in line with Vegas’s current line, potentially favoring Duke slightly more than they already are.

Betting Trends

Duke enters this matchup at 4-6 ATS, including a 3-2 mark on the road and a 2-1 record as an away favorite. They’re also 4-2 ATS in conference play. Overs have been frequent in Duke games, hitting in 7 of 10 overall, 4 of 5 on the road, and 2 of 3 as a road favorite. In ACC play, however, totals have split 3–3.

UNC sits at 5-5 ATS, with a 2-3 record at home and a 1-2 mark as a home underdog. They are 3-3 ATS in ACC games. The under has been the stronger trend for the Tar Heels, hitting in 7 of 10 overall and 3 of 5 at home. As a home underdog, unders have gone 1-1-1. In conference play, the under has hit in 4 of 6.

Final Thoughts

This game may not carry major stakes, but it still sets up to be a great rivalry matchup. With Duke trending the way they have lately, and with this one being played in Chapel Hill, I think the Tar Heels will manage to cover. I would also lean toward the under in this spot.