Game: Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

Date: November 23rd at 4:25 PM ET

Where to Watch: FOX

This season has gone from bad to worse for the Atlanta Falcons, who just lost Michael Penix Jr. for the remainder of the year. On Sunday, they’ll travel to New Orleans to face their division rival, the Saints. After back-to-back overtime losses, the Falcons have now dropped five straight and sit at 3-7. The offense has struggled, averaging just 332.5 yards per game (16th in the NFL) and 19.5 points per game (27th). Defensively, things haven’t been much better as they allow 326.5 yards per game (16th) and 23.9 points per game (19th).

New Orleans enters this matchup well-rested coming off the bye and still feeling good about its win in Charlotte two weeks ago. Their 2-8 record doesn’t reflect the improvements they’ve shown recently, but they’ve certainly looked more competitive. Offensively, though, the numbers remain below average at 297.2 yards per game (26th) and 15.5 points per game (30th). The defense has been better, allowing 317.5 yards per game (10th), though they still give up 25 points per game (21st).

Sunday’s matchup presents an interesting opportunity for both teams. Neither is realistically thinking about the playoffs at this point—the Falcons appear demoralized, while the Saints may feel like they’re starting to build some momentum.

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Betting Overview

In the preseason, the Falcons were roughly 2.5-point favorites in this matchup, but with recent developments and poor play, the Saints are now favored at -1.5. Atlanta currently sits at +110 on the moneyline, while New Orleans’ best value comes in at -125. The total has also taken a notable dip, opening at 43.5 and now sitting at 39.5 at most books.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: It’s difficult to make a strong case for this Atlanta staff, especially given how often they’ve struggled to finish games. I’m not necessarily saying Kellen Moore and his group are definitively better right now, but the gap isn’t nearly as wide as many would’ve expected a few months ago.

DLs vs. OLs: Atlanta controls the line of scrimmage in this matchup. The biggest gap comes on the offensive line, where the Falcons have a clear advantage. The defensive lines are more comparable, but when you look at the on-field matchups—Atlanta’s offensive line vs. New Orleans’ defensive line—the Falcons still hold the edge.

QBs: It appears we’ll get a Kirk Cousins vs. Tyler Shough matchup. Shough showed some flashes in the Panthers game a few weeks back, but you can’t argue against Cousins’ track record. He may not be at his peak form, but he’s still the better quarterback in this matchup.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: This is one of the closer position-group battles. The Falcons have the advantage at running back, but the Saints control the remaining areas, particularly the linebacker room. That gives New Orleans the slight overall edge here.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Atlanta may be without star receiver Drake London, which is a significant blow. The Falcons’ secondary has also regressed in recent weeks. While the Saints’ receiver room isn’t as strong as it once was, they still hold the overall edge on the outside in this matchup.

Betting Trends

We’ve seen this matchup favor the Saints in the last 10, as they’ve won 7 and managed to cover 6 of those games, with the over/under splitting 5 apiece. Looking at last year’s meetings specifically, they each won one, but the Saints covered both, and the total split one apiece.

Atlanta is now 4-5-1 ATS on the year, with a 2-2 record on the road, a 2-0 record as a road underdog, and an 0-3 record in the division. Unders have been slightly more favorable, hitting in 5 of 10 (with one push). On the road the under has hit in 3 of 4, split one apiece as road dogs, and hit in 2 of 3 division games.

New Orleans is now 3-7 ATS, with a 1-4 record at home, a 1-0 record as a home favorite, and a 1-1 record in the division. Unders have hit in 7 of 10, 4 of 5 at home, the lone game as a home favorite, and both division games.

Final Thoughts

There’s no way to sugarcoat how this Falcons season has gone, or how disappointing it has been. The fact that they’re underdogs in a game against the Saints speaks volumes. I’m sure that will be used as bulletin-board material, and I do think the Falcons will win this game outright despite all of the negative things that have happened. I’m avoiding the total in this one.