Game: Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

Date: November 27th at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: FOX

To kick off what is arguably the best regular-season week of the year, we start with the Green Bay Packers visiting the Detroit Lions in the opening Thanksgiving matchup. Both teams enter with strong records, though neither looks quite as dominant as they did earlier in the season. The Packers come in riding back-to-back wins, most recently a strong defensive performance against the Vikings, bringing them to 7-3-1. Offensively, they’ve cooled off from their early-season form, ranking 13th in both yards per game (338.9) and points per game (23.9). Defensively, however, they continue to shine, sitting 4th in yards allowed (278.7) and 5th in points allowed (18.4).

The Lions, meanwhile, are fresh off an overtime win against the Giants — a game in which they were favored by more than two touchdowns — but they still sit at 7-4. Their offense remains one of the best in the NFL, ranking 4th in yards per game (378.5) and 2nd in points per game (29.6). Defensively, they’ve also been solid, ranking 10th in yards allowed (312.3) and 11th in points allowed (22.1).

This rivalry matchup carries major weight for both sides, as each looks to keep pace with the division-leading Chicago Bears.

Embed from Getty Images

Betting Overview

This line hasn’t seen much movement, with most books opening — and staying — at Lions -2.5, though a few did open at -3. The moneyline has remained steady as well, with the best value sitting at +125 for Green Bay and -138 for Detroit. The total varies slightly depending on the book: some have held at the opening number of 48.5, while others have shifted to 49 or 49.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: Divisional coaching matchups are always fun, especially when both teams have strong staffs. You know the schemes will be sharp, and both sides are familiar with each other. With both Lions coordinators having departed after last season and the Packers retaining theirs, I’d give a slight coaching edge to Green Bay.

DLs vs. OLs: This should be a great battle up front, as both teams boast physical defensive lines. Green Bay has the stronger defensive line, but Detroit holds the advantage on the offensive line. Overall, I lean slightly toward Detroit here, as the Packers’ offensive line doesn’t quite match up.

QBs: The quarterback matchup is about as even as it gets. Jared Goff has been slightly more consistent across his career than Jordan Love to this point, and with Goff playing at home, he gets the slight edge.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Green Bay is banged up in this area, while Jahmyr Gibbs is coming off one of the most impressive performances of the season. Detroit’s linebackers are also rounding into form, giving the Lions the advantage.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Both teams have strong secondaries, with Green Bay holding a slight statistical edge. However, the wide receiver rooms aren’t close — Detroit clearly has the stronger group.

Betting Trends

Across the last 10 meetings between these two teams, Detroit has won 6, covered in 6, and the totals have split 5–5. In the most recent two matchups, each team has won once, the spread pushed in one of those games, and the Packers covered the latest meeting. The over/under have split 1–1 in that span.

Green Bay is 4–7 ATS this season, with a 1–4 record on the road (all as favorites), but they are 2–0 in divisional play. Totals have leaned toward the under, hitting in 6 of 11 games. On the road, however, the over has hit in 4 of 5, and in division matchups the under has hit in both.

Detroit sits at 6–5 ATS, with a 3–2 home record (all as favorites), and a 1–2 record in the division. Totals have slightly favored the over, hitting in 6 of 11 games, including 3 of 5 at home and 2 of 3 in divisional play.

Final Thoughts

Division games are always tough to gauge, especially with the added spotlight that comes with Thanksgiving Day matchups. With how good both of these teams are, this should be a great game from start to finish. I think the Lions will have a bit of revenge on their minds, and I expect them to cover in this spot. As for the total, this one truly could go either way.