Game: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. NC State Wolfpack

Date: November 29th at 7:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ACC Network

We’ll get another iteration of UNC vs. NC State this Saturday, and the first under head coach Bill Belichick. The Tar Heels are now playing strictly for pride, while NC State is already locked into a bowl game. Carolina has dropped two straight and sits at 4-7 on the season. Their offense has been the recurring issue, averaging just 289.2 yards per game (128th in FBS) and 17.1 points per game (125th in FBS). Defensively, however, they’ve been solid, allowing 345.7 yards per game (38th in FBS) and 24.6 points per game (59th in FBS).

NC State, meanwhile, has been strong at home—which is the setting for this matchup—and is coming off a win against Florida State to move to 6-5. The Wolfpack average 376.9 yards per game (72nd in FBS) and 26.4 points per game (68th in FBS). Their defense has been a major concern, allowing 459.9 yards per game (130th in FBS) and 31.7 points per game (110th in FBS).

Even without major postseason implications, this rivalry always brings tension, and we should be in for a fun matchup.

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Weather

Though nothing concerning shows up on the radar, it’s going to be a cold one. Temperatures will sit in the mid-to-upper 30s, but winds shouldn’t play much of a factor with averages around 5 mph and gusts up to 6 mph. There’s also a 0% chance of rain.

Betting Overview

This line hasn’t shifted much, as NC State opened as 7.5-point favorites and still sits in the 7 to 7.5 range. The moneylines have also seen minimal movement, with the best number for Carolina now at +230 (from +260) and NC State at -270 (from -325). The total has dipped slightly from the 48.5 opener and is now between 47.5 and 48 depending on the book.

Power Ratings 

  • ESPN FPI: FPI has NC State around the middle of the pack (no pun intended) at 60th giving 2.4 points to the FBS average.  Carolina is a little bit further down the line at 88th receiving 6 points from the FBS average.  Based on this model, we would actually see the Wolfpack as even heavier favorites.
  • SP+: This model isn’t quite as fond of NC State as they’re at 66th giving just 0.7 points to the FBS average.  Carolina is a little further down as well as they’re at 94th receiving 6.1 points from the FBS average.  Due to the NC State home field advantage, NC State should be slightly heavier favorites based on this model as well.

Betting Trends

NC State has controlled this series over the last eight meetings, winning six of the eight matchups. However, Carolina has managed to cover in five of those eight, and the over has also hit in five of eight. Last season, the Wolfpack won and covered, and the over cashed as well.

The Tar Heels enter this game 5-5-1 ATS, including a 3-2 record on the road, a 2-2 mark as an away underdog, and a 3-3-1 record in conference play. Totals have leaned toward the under, hitting in seven of 11 overall, including four of five road games, three of four as a road underdog, and four of seven ACC matchups.

NC State is 5-6 ATS on the year, with a 4-2 record at home, a 2-2 mark as a home favorite, and a 4-4 record in ACC games. Overs have been more common in Wolfpack games, hitting in six of 11 overall, splitting 3–3 at home, and 2–2 as a home favorite. In conference play, the over has hit in five of eight.

Final Thoughts

Carolina will certainly have an added chip on their shoulder in this one, considering they haven’t won this matchup in the last four tries. The concern, though, is having to go into Raleigh at night. Even so, I think Carolina’s defense will be strong enough to keep them in it, allowing them to cover, and I would lean toward the under in this matchup.