Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Miami Dolphins

Date: November 30th at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: FOX

This is the point in the season where some matchups simply don’t carry the same weight. Miami still has a small window of hope to salvage their year, while New Orleans is essentially playing with an eye toward the future. The Saints enter this one at 2-9 after a home loss to the Falcons. Offensively, they rank 26th in yards per game (296.8) and 31st in points per game (15). Their defense has been better, sitting 11th in yards allowed (316.1), though they’re still giving up 24.9 points per game (22nd).

Miami has shown improvement after a rough start, riding a two-game win streak to get to 4-7. The offense ranks 25th in yards per game (300.4) and 24th in scoring (20.5). Defensively, they haven’t been much better, allowing 349.8 yards per game (24th) and 24.5 points per game (21st). This has the makings of a competitive game, but it’s undoubtedly a “must win” for Miami if they want to keep any postseason hope alive.

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Weather

Weather could play a significant role in this one, especially with the wind. We’re expecting steady winds around 15 mph with gusts reaching up to 21 mph. Temperatures will be comfortable in the high 70s to low 80s, but there is also a decent chance of rain at around 40%.

Betting Overview

This line varies quite a bit depending on the book, with some listing Miami at -4.5, most sitting at -5.5, and a few reaching -6. The moneyline has stayed consistent, with New Orleans at +220 and Miami at -245. The total has dropped from the opening 44.5 to anywhere between 41.5 and 42.5 across most books.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: I’d lean toward Kellen Moore and his staff in this matchup. What’s unfolded in Miami has been nothing short of disappointing, while Moore actually appears to be building something sustainable.

DLs vs. OLs: Miami has a legitimately strong offensive line, but they’ll be tested by a solid Saints defensive front. On the flip side, Miami’s defensive line has struggled, as has New Orleans’ offensive line. Overall, this should be a fairly even battle up front, with a slight edge to Miami.

QBs: This isn’t exactly the most exciting quarterback matchup between Tyler Shough and Tua Tagovailoa. Tua gets the edge due to experience, though he hasn’t been particularly impressive this season.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: With Alvin Kamara sidelined, this becomes a clear advantage for Miami. De’Von Achane has been the engine of their offense, and Darren Waller has flashed at times. Neither team has gotten great linebacker play, but the Dolphins have the more dangerous weapons here.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Miami is dealing with significant injuries in the secondary, while New Orleans still has reliable receiving options. The Saints’ secondary has played well enough to give them the advantage on the perimeter.

Betting Trends

The Saints are 3-8 ATS this season, with a 2-3 record on the road (all as underdogs) and a 1-1 mark against AFC opponents. Totals have leaned heavily toward the under, hitting in 8 of 11 games, including 3 of 5 on the road, while non-conference matchups have split one apiece.

Miami enters this one 6-5 ATS, with a 3-2 record at home, a 1-1 record as a home favorite, and a 2-1 record against NFC opponents. Totals have favored the over in Dolphins games, hitting in 6 of 11 overall, including 3 of 5 at home, both games as a home favorite, and a 1-1-1 split in non-conference play.

Final Thoughts

With the Saints focused more on the long-term at this point, it’s hard to back them down the stretch. I expect New Orleans to put up a fight, but Miami should find a way to win and cover. I also like the over to hit in this matchup.