Game: Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers

Date: December 6th at 8:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ABC

In what is easily the most surprising of the Power 4 conference championship matchups, the ACC title game features Duke and Virginia — and no, this isn’t the basketball version. Virginia has had a strong season by their standards, while Duke has been subpar overall but good enough in ACC play to get here, helped by California’s big win over SMU last week.

Duke enters at 7-5, but their 6-2 conference record punched their ticket. Their offense has carried them, averaging 410.4 yards per game (38th in FBS) and 33.6 points per game (18th in FBS). Defense, however, has been a major issue, as they’ve allowed 426.9 yards per game (111th in FBS) and 30.5 points per game (99th in FBS).

Virginia comes in at 10-2, suffering just one loss in ACC play to finish 7-1. Their offense has been steady, averaging 409.1 yards per game (40th in FBS) and 31.2 points per game (26th in FBS). The defense is the backbone of this team, allowing just 317 yards per game (21st in FBS) and 20.4 points per game (21st in FBS).

The ACC’s most realistic path to placing a team in the College Football Playoff is a Virginia victory, so the pressure will be heavy on the Cavaliers — and Duke will be eager to spoil it.

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Weather

Temperatures will be mild for this one, sitting in the mid-40s with only a 15% chance of rain. Winds should be a non-factor, averaging around 2 mph with gusts reaching just 4 mph.

Betting Overview

Virginia opened as modest 2.5-point favorites and have since inched up to 3.5. The moneyline has seen similar movement, with Duke now at +145 (from +110) and Virginia at -165 (from -130). The total has stayed steady at 57.5.

Power Ratings 

  • ESPN FPI: Virginia finds themselves at 40th in this rating system giving 7.4 points to the FBS average, while Duke is at 46th giving just 5.2 to the FBS average.  This aligns closer with the original line as FPI would only have UVA as around 2.2-point favorites.
  • SP+: UVA is much higher in this model at 28th giving 12.1 points to the field average, while Duke is marginally lower at 53rd giving 4.8 points to the FBS Average.  Based on these metrics the Cavaliers would be much heavier favorites around a touchdown.

Betting Trends

These teams met less than a month ago, where UVA handled Duke 34–17. Virginia not only won outright but covered as 5.5-point underdogs, and the under 60 also hit.

Duke enters this matchup 5-6-1 ATS, with a 5-2-1 mark in ACC play and a 1-2 record as an underdog. Totals have leaned heavily to the over, hitting in 9 of 12 games overall, 5 of 8 in conference play, and all three times Duke has been an underdog.

UVA has been strong ATS at 8-4, including a 6-3 record in the ACC and a 5-3 mark as a favorite. Unders have been more common in Cavaliers games, hitting in 7 of 12 overall, 6 of 9 conference matchups, and 5 of 8 contests as a favorite.

Final Thoughts

This matchup has the makings of a close ACC championship, but since UVA’s lone conference loss to Wake Forest, they’ve really settled in. I expect this one to stay tight deep into the game, but the Cavaliers should pull away late, cover the spread, and push this one over the total.