Game: Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints

Date: December 14th at 4:25 PM ET

Where to Watch: FOX

Coming out of the bye week, the Carolina Panthers should be carrying plenty of confidence, and facing the New Orleans Saints again gives them a shot at revenge. The Panthers had solid momentum entering the break after beating a strong Los Angeles Rams team at home, bumping their record back over .500 at 7-6 and keeping them firmly in the playoff mix. Offensively, Carolina still isn’t impressive on paper, averaging 311.2 yards per game (23rd in NFL) and 19 points per game (28th in NFL). Defensively, however, they’ve been much steadier, allowing 331.1 yards per game (18th in NFL) and 22.8 points per game (16th in NFL).

New Orleans actually helped Carolina this past Sunday with a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Saints now sit at just 3-10 on the season. Their offense continues to struggle, ranking 26th in yards per game (293.8) and 30th in points per game (15.8). Defensively, they’ve been more respectable, sitting 12th in yards allowed per game (313.5), though 21st in points allowed per game (24.2). With the Panthers having ample time to prepare for this Saints team and coming off arguably their best performance of the year against the Rams, there are no excuses here. And with only four games left in the regular season, every opportunity on the field is critical.

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Betting Overview

When betting lines opened for this matchup, the Panthers were listed at -1.5, and while the number hasn’t shifted drastically, Carolina is now a 2.5-point favorite. The moneyline has seen a slight adjustment as well, with the Panthers moving to -142 (from -122), while the Saints sit at +134 (from +102). As for the total, it has fallen from the opening number of 43.5 down to 40.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: Although the Panthers have had their share of rough outings, what Dave Canales has done with this team—nearly a complete turnaround—has been extremely impressive. That isn’t to dismiss the work Kellen Moore has done, but he still has more to prove at this stage.

DLs vs. OLs: One of the most encouraging developments for Carolina this season has been the strength of their offensive line. They’ve performed like a clear top-10 unit, and the bye week only helps. The Saints, meanwhile, have struggled on both sides of the line, giving the Panthers the clear advantage up front.

QBs: Tyler Shough hasn’t been terrible for the Saints, but he also hasn’t been particularly impactful. Bryce Young has dealt with his own inconsistencies, but with more experience and command of the system, he holds the edge here.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: With uncertainty surrounding whether Alvin Kamara will play this week, New Orleans still has the stronger units in the other areas. Carolina lacks a true tight-end threat, and the Saints’ linebackers have been more consistent, giving New Orleans the advantage.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Carolina’s secondary has been strong in the turnover department but still allows plenty of yardage. New Orleans has been more reliable overall against the pass, and the receiving groups are relatively even, giving the Saints a slight edge on the perimeter.

Betting Trends

Across the last 10 matchups between these franchises, the Saints hold the upper hand, winning 6 and covering in 5, compared to the Panthers’ 4 covers along with 1 push. The total in these meetings has strongly favored the under, hitting in 8 of the last 10. In the game earlier this season, the Saints won, covered, and the under hit.

The Panthers, through 13 games, are 8-5 ATS with a 4-3 record on the road, a 1-0 mark as a road favorite, and a 2-1 record in the division. Totals have leaned slightly toward the over, hitting in 7 of 13. On the road, however, the under has been more favorable, hitting in 4 of 7, along with the lone game as an away favorite. In division play, the under has also hit in 2 of 3.

New Orleans is a 5-8 ATS team with a 1-5 record at home, an 0-4 record as a home underdog, and a 2-2 mark in the division. Over/unders have favored the under, hitting in 9 of 13 games, including 5 of 6 at home, 3 of 4 as a home underdog, and 3 of 4 in the division.

Final Thoughts

This game is a very exciting opportunity for the Carolina Panthers, and definitely not one to overlook. I think they will be able to rise to the occasion and win this matchup, and I believe they will cover the current line at -2.5, though if it moves to -3 or higher, I would likely fade it. Even though the last meeting between these two teams was so low-scoring, I think the current total of 40.5 is too low, which makes me lean toward the over.