Game: Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Date: December 15th at 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

Get your Terrible Towels ready for this Monday Night Football game, as this week we will see a battle between AFC opponents in the Miami Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers. This game has a lot more playoff implications for the Steelers, as Miami is essentially eliminated from contention, even if they win today. The Dolphins have turned things around of late, as they’ve won 4 straight, and are almost back to .500 at 6-7. Offensively this year things have been just okay, as they’re 25th in yards per game (304.6), along with being 21st in points per game (21.6). On the defensive side of things, they’ve been slightly better at 19th in yards allowed per game (334.5), and 15th in points allowed per game (22.8). Pittsburgh is in the driver’s seat of the AFC North and are looking to add some separation between them and the Ravens. They come into this game with a 7-6 record, and a win this week would go a long way. Their offense hasn’t been the most prolific, as they’re 27th in yards per game (284.5), but are 14th in points per game (23.7). On the defensive side of things, they’ve been mediocre as well at 28th in yards allowed per game (369.3), along with being 20th in points allowed per game (23.9). This should be a tight Monday Night Football contest, and it will be fascinating to see how this Miami team will handle the elements in a freezing-cold Pittsburgh.

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Weather
We’re looking at some very cold temperatures in Pittsburgh this evening, as this one will be played between 21℉ to 22℉, with a 0% chance of precipitation. Winds won’t be too bad though, averaging 9 mph, with gusts up to 12 mph.

Betting Overview
This game opened on a tight margin with Pittsburgh as modest 2.5-point favorites, and things haven’t moved much as they’re now 3-to-3.5-point favorites. The moneyline has seemingly had bigger movement, as Miami is at +156 (from +110), while Pittsburgh is at -166 (from -130). The total here has dropped a little from 44.5 to between 41.5 and 42.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: Even though things have gotten a little stale in Pittsburgh over the years, it’s still hard to bet against Mike Tomlin, especially at home. Mike McDaniel has seemingly turned things around in Miami, after what looked like a completely lost season, but if I had to back one coaching staff here, it would be Pittsburgh’s.

DLs vs. OLs: Both of these teams boast great offensive lines in this battle, with Miami having a slight edge in the rushing attack. The defensive line, however, is where the Steelers win this battle overall, as Miami has one of the worst defensive lines in the NFL. Even if Pittsburgh is without T.J. Watt, which it looks like they will be, they will still be the better team up front overall.

QBs: If Aaron Rodgers was just coming back from injury this week, the advantage might favor Miami. However, Rodgers now has 2 weeks under his belt after returning from injury, and will have the home crowd to back him, therefore I lean Rodgers in this quarterback duel.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: The Dolphins certainly have the edge in this department, with Devon Achane taking the league by storm. The tight end room would definitely lean towards Pittsburgh, though the linebacker department favors the Dolphins (off-ball linebackers).

WRs vs. Secondaries: In the battle on the outside, this could really go either way. Even without Tyreek Hill, I’d say the Dolphins still have the more dynamic receiving corps, while in the secondary department, I’d slightly favor the Steelers. This is truly a toss-up, so I don’t favor either side here.

Betting Trends

Miami is a solid 7-6 ATS team this year, with a 3-3 record on the road, a 2-2 record as an away underdog, and a 5-4 record in AFC games. Totals have favored the over, as they have gone 7-5-1 overall. On the road, totals have gone 5-1-1, and 2-1-1 in games as an away underdog. For games in the conference, the over has hit in 6 of 9.

Pittsburgh is just under .500 with a 6-7 ATS record, along with a 3-3 record at home, a 2-1 record as a home favorite, and a 5-4 record in conference. In the over/under department for Pittsburgh, it has favored the over hitting in 7 out of 13. At home though, the under has been more favorable, hitting in 4 of 6, with 2 of 3 as a home favorite. In conference games, the under has hit in 6 of 9 games.

Final Thoughts

This game will be a classic Pittsburgh Steelers game, as I think we will see a big defensive presence in this one, even without star edge rusher T.J. Watt. The line in this one is definitely tough at that -3 number, though I think the Steelers bring too much into this one, leading to them covering in this spot. Given the weather, I think it will be tough to get the offenses fully clicking, leading to an under in this game.