Game: Memphis Tigers vs. NC State Wolfpack

Date: December 19th at 2:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

In one of the earlier bowl games this season, we will see the Memphis Tigers face off against the NC State Wolfpack in the Gasparilla Bowl, down in Tampa, Florida. Both teams have obviously had solid seasons, as they’ve earned the right to be able to play in bowl season. Memphis though was a little underwhelming, as they had playoff hopes late in the season, but ended up faltering late, losing 3 straight, and are now 8-4 on the year. Their offense was strong all year as they averaged 419.2 yards per game (26th in FBS), along with 33.6 points per game (17th in FBS). The defense was definitely middle of the road, allowing 372.8 yards per game (60th in FBS), along with 23.6 points per game (47th in FBS). NC State had a different story this year, as they had their issues in the middle of the season, but came on late winning 3 of their last 4, ending the season with a 7-5 record. Offensively they were statistically middle of the road, averaging 377.7 yards per game (71st in FBS), along with 27.8 points per game (58th in FBS). The defense struggled all year, allowing 442.2 yards per game (126th in FBS), along with 30.5 points per game (100th in FBS).

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Weather

Temperatures in the afternoon of the 19th will be in the mid to high 70s, with only a 14% chance of rain. Winds will be modest, averaging around 7 mph, with gusts up to 14 mph.

Betting Overview

The Wolfpack opened this one as 5.5-point favorites, with most books moving to only -4.5 in favor of NC State. The moneyline hasn’t moved much either, with Memphis holding steady at +170, and NC State at -205. As for the total, we’ve seen this move from 58.5 to 57.5 or 58 at some books.

Power Ratings 

  • ESPN FPI: Memphis is at 48th in this model giving 4.9 points to the FBS average, while NC State is at 57th giving 3.3 points to the field average.  Based on this, we should see Memphis as about 1.5-point favorites.
  • SP+: In this model, we actually see Memphis even higher at 34th and giving 9.6 points to the FBS average.  NC State on the other hand is lower at 62nd, giving 2.8 points to the field average.  According to this, the Tigers should be around touchdown favorites.

Betting Trends

Memphis has been a good ATS team this year with an 8-4 record, a 2-1 record as an underdog, and a 4-0 record in non-conference games. Totals have leaned toward the over hitting in 7 of 12 games, including all 3 games as an underdog, while splitting 2 apiece in non-conference games.

NC State comes into this one an even 6-6 ATS, with a 4-2 record as a favorite, and a 1-2 record in non-conference games. Over/unders have slightly favored the over hitting in 7 of 12 games, with 4 of 6 as a favorite. Unders have been more favorable in non-conference play, however, hitting in 2 of 3 games.

Final Thoughts

With NC State coming in with a little more momentum, it can be difficult to back this Memphis team, especially given their own recent form. With that said, I think Memphis is the better team in this one, so I would pick them to cover, and they also have a solid chance of winning outright. The total in this one I’d lean toward the over, considering both teams are more offensively focused.