Game: San Francisco 49ers vs. Indianapolis Colts

Date: December 22nd at 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

On this week’s Monday Night Football, we will get to watch the unretired Philip Rivers in the national spotlight. The Colts are unfortunately still a longshot to make the playoffs, as the team has suffered numerous key injuries throughout this season. They will host the San Francisco 49ers, who still control their own destiny as it pertains to the number 1 overall seed in the NFC. They enter this game on a 4-game win streak, and a 10-4 overall record. They’ve been strong offensively this year at 10th in both yards per game (347.5), and points per game (24.6). Defensively they have not been quite as strong as they’re 18th in yards allowed per game (333.6), along with 11th in points allowed per game (20.9). As for the Colts, they got off to a blazing hot start this year, but have really struggled as of late, losing 4 straight and have an 8-6 overall record. Statistically the Colts have been one of the strongest offenses this season, at 7th in yards per game (357.5), and 6th in points per game (28). Defensively things have fallen off a bit from where they were earlier in the year, as they’re 22nd in yards allowed per game (342.7), and 13th in points allowed per game (21.6). It will be interesting to see what kind of Colts team we’ll see tonight, as they go up against a highly motivated San Francisco team.

Embed from Getty Images

Betting Overview

San Francisco opened as 3-point favorites but has since moved to -5.5 across most sportsbooks. We’ve seen the same movement for the moneyline as the 49ers sit at -250 (from -155), while the Colts are at +220 (from +130). The total hasn’t moved much as it opened at 46.5, and things now sit at that number, with some books moving to 45.5 or 46.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: The coaching matchup here clearly favors the 49ers. Shane Steichen and his support staff have been great all year, but there are few coaches in the league that can compete with Kyle Shanahan, and what he’s been able to do year in and year out.

OLs vs. DLs: In the battle up front, we actually see the Colts with the edge. Indianapolis has had one of the strongest offensive lines all year and has been okay on the d-line. San Francisco’s kryptonite all year has been the defensive line, and their offensive line hasn’t been much better.

QBs: As cool as it is to see Philip Rivers under center again, he does not bring the same level of skill as he did pre-retirement. Brock Purdy has been really effective in this 49er system and certainly gets the advantage over Rivers in this spot.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Without Fred Warner, the 49ers struggled for a while but have picked things up in recent games. The running back battle in this one will be one of the best this season, and the tight end room favors San Francisco. Indianapolis isn’t too shabby in these position groups either, but the 49ers will definitely see the advantage here.

WRs vs. Secondaries: These secondaries have been pretty equivalent this year, with neither group being particularly impressive. This isn’t the most prolific wide receiver matchup either, though the 49ers tend to generate more yards in the passing game. Overall, I have to lean San Francisco here.

Betting Trends

The 49ers have been really strong ATS this season with an 8-5-1 record, along with a 6-2-1 mark as an away team, a 5-0 record as an away favorite, and a 1-2-1 record in non-conference. Totals have favored the over, hitting in 8 of 14 games, with 5 of 8 on the road, 3 of 5 as an away favorite, and going 2-1-1 in non-conference.

Indianapolis has also been a strong ATS team with a 7-5-2 record, a 4-2 record at home, a 1-0 record as a home underdog, and a 1-2-1 record in non-conference. Over/unders have split 7 apiece for the Colts, splitting 3 apiece at home, as well as 2 apiece in non-conference. In the lone game as a home underdog, the over hit.

Final Thoughts

Though it is exciting to see Philip Rivers in these last few games of the year, this game feels like it will be an uphill battle. I think the 49ers will be ready for this one and will be able to win and cover here. I’m staying away from the total in this one.